251
FXUS64 KSHV 200220
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
820 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
THIRD INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH POPS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
- BEHIND THE RAIN CHANCES, HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WATCH
THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. ELECTED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HI-RES, WHILE NOT OVERLY BULLISH,
HAS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SOME POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MORE SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE PROFILE SOUTH
OF I-20. WHILE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST, AND THIS ALSO GOES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AM, THE AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH
3 DAY QPF ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.10-0.25". WHILE THE 3 DAY QPF
DOES SUGGEST A VERY ISOLATED BULLSEYE FOR AMOUNTS BETWEEN
0.25-0.5", THIS WOULD LIKELY COME FROM A VERY GENEROUS DOWNPOUR OR
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM LATE FRIDAY, INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON HANGS UP NEAR ALEXANDRIA
TONIGHT AND RETREATS BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT VIA A
WEAK SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT FORCING ALOFT
TOMORROW. WHAT DOES MATERIALIZE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FILLING IN FOR SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THE FOUR STATE REGION IN GENERAL THUNDER FOR TOMORROW
AS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT AS HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE A MIX OF 50'S AND LOW 60'S. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL SINK RH PERCENTAGES INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20'S. BREEZY NORTHERLIES SUNDAY COMBINED WITH
LOW RH PERCENTAGES AND DRY SOILS WILL SUPPORT A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN LOCALLY, AND SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION IF ANY
BURNING IS PLANNED. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST, ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
MAY FOLLOW IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. THOUGH RH PERCENTAGES WILL
REMAIN LOW INTO MONDAY, THE BREEZY NORTHERLIES WILL WEAKEN AHEAD
OF A RETURN TO SOUTHERLIES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SWING IN THE
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT AS
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER 60'S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
70'S AND EVEN SOME LOW 80'S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
RK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 811 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
FOR THE 20/00Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES,
WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AND IT HAS MADE IT
THROUGH KTYR/KGGG/KTXK. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, THEN EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING LOW ENOUGH FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 71 56 72 / 10 20 20 20
MLU 54 71 56 70 / 20 20 40 30
DEQ 38 65 44 63 / 0 10 20 10
TXK 46 69 51 67 / 0 10 20 10
ELD 46 68 48 64 / 0 20 30 20
TYR 49 72 56 71 / 0 10 10 10
GGG 49 72 55 72 / 0 10 10 10
LFK 57 75 61 77 / 10 20 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...20
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