430
FXUS64 KSHV 200631
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,
CONTINUING AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE, WHILE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN VERY LIMITED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SHARPLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S, WHILE
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
- WARMING TREND BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION,
SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH EAST
OUT OF THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK AS THE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, EXPANDING NORTH INTO TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
LOW TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S SOUTH TO
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-30.
RETURNING RAINFALL TOMORROW HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, FILLING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING,
JOINED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING BRIEFLY MORE WIDESPREAD INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SWEEPS THE
CONVECTION OUT OF THE ARKLATEX BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY.
THE LATEST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW EXTREMELY
LIMITED ONLY LANDING IN THE 0.01 TO 0.1 INCH RANGE, WHERE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NON-NEGLIGIBLE AT ALL. WHILE THIS UNFORTUNATELY
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RELIEF FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS, THE SILVER
LINING IS THAT ORGANIZED STORM CHANCES ARE ALSO LIMITED, WITH THE
ARKLATEX STILL BEING OUTLOOKED ONLY IN GENERAL THUNDER THROUGHOUT.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERHEAD, MAKING FOR A
QUIET START TO NEXT WEEK, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM THE 70S
TO 50S WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PSEUDO-ZONAL, ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES TO WRAP UP THIS
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
FOR THE 20/06Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES,
WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD GIVE US
SOME LIGHT RAIN AT KMLU/KLFK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LOW ENOUGH FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
WILL TRY TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. IT MAY GET THROUGH
KLFK BEFORE STALLING SOUTH OF I-20. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TOMORROW EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 52 69 39 / 10 20 20 0
MLU 66 53 68 39 / 20 30 20 0
DEQ 62 42 62 29 / 10 20 10 0
TXK 65 48 65 35 / 20 20 20 0
ELD 64 45 62 33 / 20 20 20 0
TYR 67 51 69 37 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 67 50 70 36 / 10 10 20 0
LFK 70 57 74 40 / 30 10 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20
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