779
FXUS64 KSHV 210439
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1039 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,
CONTINUING AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE, WHILE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN VERY LIMITED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SHARPLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S, WHILE
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
- WARMING TREND BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS
STALLED FRONT IS ACTING AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE AMBIENT
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW, WHICH WILL MEAN INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THEM EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT'S MOVEMENT DURING
THE DAY.
THE FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH A COOLER, BUT MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS ON SUNDAY, WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20-30% RANGE
REGION WIDE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY WITH THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM, COMBINING WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND DRY
AIRMASS TO HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15+ MPH, WITH HIGHER WINDS SKEWED TOWARDS THE EAST WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. SHOULD
FORECASTED CONDITIONS STAY CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT DAY, A FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCT COULD BE NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINN PARISH IS THE ONLY COUNTY/PARISH CURRENTLY UNDER A
BURN BAN BUT BE SURE TO STAY AWARE OF GUIDANCE BY YOUR LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
WORK TO START ANOTHER WARMING TREND ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN PORTIONS OF EAST
TEXAS. LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
PRIME FOCUS FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS. /57/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CEILINGS CURRENTLY PREVAILING NEAR 3KFT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NOTED ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS CURRENTLY. THESE
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
AIRSPACE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
LFK TO MLU SO ADDED VCSH TO COVER THIS. LOOK FOR POST FRONTAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE AS WELL ON SATURDAY WITH LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE NORTH NEAR 10-14KTS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 22 MPH AT TIMES. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET ON SATURDAY TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THIS 24HR TAF
PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 68 40 60 / 10 30 0 0
MLU 52 66 38 58 / 20 30 0 0
DEQ 43 62 30 57 / 20 10 0 0
TXK 49 65 36 59 / 20 20 0 0
ELD 46 60 34 57 / 20 30 0 0
TYR 51 68 38 60 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 50 69 37 61 / 10 30 0 0
LFK 56 73 40 61 / 10 20 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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