818
FXUS64 KSHV 210631
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SHARPLY BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S
THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
- RETURN OF 70S AND 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SWEEP MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX, ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FIRING LATE
THIS EVENING BETWEEN I-20 AND I-30, LARGELY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA. AS THIS FORCING MECHANISM REMAINS
THROUGH TOMORROW, ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN A SCATTERED
NATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES OF THE ARKLATEX, FROM
TOLEDO BEND UP TOWARDS MONROE. THE SHOWERS WHICH DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNSET. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH,
WITH SATURDAY'S HIGHS TO FOLLOW IN THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO
THE MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, AT LAST SWEEPING OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE AREA, AND
USHERING IN A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLDER AIR, PLUNGING LOW
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR FREEZING NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTH BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN COOL
AIR ADVECTION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND USHER IN NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH MORNING LOWS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN AND QUICKLY INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND, RETURNING HIGHS TO
THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS TO THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES OF THE ARKLATEX LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CEILINGS CURRENTLY PREVAILING NEAR 3KFT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NOTED ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS CURRENTLY. THESE
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
AIRSPACE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
LFK TO MLU SO ADDED VCSH TO COVER THIS. LOOK FOR POST FRONTAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE AS WELL ON SATURDAY WITH LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE NORTH NEAR 10-14KTS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 22 MPH AT TIMES. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET ON SATURDAY TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THIS 24HR TAF
PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 39 59 33 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 67 38 57 32 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 64 30 54 25 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 67 36 57 31 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 61 34 56 28 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 68 37 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 70 37 59 32 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 73 40 61 34 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page