284
FXUS64 KSHV 211742
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN ON SUNDAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED WINDS. MONITOR LOCAL GUIDANCE FOR OUTDOOR
BURNING GUIDANCE.
- COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE
WARMING UP INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO SIT WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING. AS SUCH, SOME SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNTIL AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES AND MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-30. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY AREAS THAT HIT FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I- 30 CORRIDOR, BUT NOTHING THAT ISN'T
UNSEASONABLE.
THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL CREATE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH
THE MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RH
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD FALL TO THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
WIND SPEED COMPONENT OF FIRE DANGER WILL BE SHY OF A RED FLAG
WARNING, WITH CRITERIA BEING 25+ MPH. THAT BEING SAID, WINDS OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 MPH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ANY FIRE START TO SPREAD
QUICKLY. FIRE DANGER COULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES APPEAR ON THURSDAY.
OUTSIDE OF FIRE CONCERNS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING WITH NORTHERN ZONES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S. UPPER-LEVEL RIDING DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL BEGIN ANOTHER SLOW WARMING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST WITH PARTS OF EAST TX AND THE WESTERN I-20 CORRIDOR
POTENTIALLY SEEING 80S.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY COULD BRING BACK SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES.
UNFORTUNATELY, WPC QPF IS DISPLAYING LESS THAN 0.25 IN OF RAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENT WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO PUT A DENT IN THE PERSISTANT
DROUGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP COOL THINGS OFF BRIEFLY, BRINGING
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE REBUILD
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN N/NW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. COULD SEE VCSH CONDITIONS ACROSS MLU
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED, SLIGHTLY ABOVE
10 KNOTS, THIS EVENING WITH MINIMAL GUSTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS BECOME
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 39 59 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 38 57 32 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 30 54 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 36 57 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 34 56 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 37 59 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 37 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 40 61 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...05
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