437
FXUS64 KSHV 220539
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN ON SUNDAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED WINDS. MONITOR LOCAL GUIDANCE FOR OUTDOOR
BURNING GUIDANCE.
- COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE
WARMING UP INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO SIT WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING. AS SUCH, SOME SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNTIL AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES AND MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-30. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY AREAS THAT HIT FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I- 30 CORRIDOR, BUT NOTHING THAT ISN'T
UNSEASONABLE.
THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL CREATE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH
THE MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RH
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD FALL TO THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
WIND SPEED COMPONENT OF FIRE DANGER WILL BE SHY OF A RED FLAG
WARNING, WITH CRITERIA BEING 25+ MPH. THAT BEING SAID, WINDS OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 MPH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ANY FIRE START TO SPREAD
QUICKLY. FIRE DANGER COULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES APPEAR ON THURSDAY.
OUTSIDE OF FIRE CONCERNS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING WITH NORTHERN ZONES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S. UPPER-LEVEL RIDING DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL BEGIN ANOTHER SLOW WARMING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST WITH PARTS OF EAST TX AND THE WESTERN I-20 CORRIDOR
POTENTIALLY SEEING 80S.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY COULD BRING BACK SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES.
UNFORTUNATELY, WPC QPF IS DISPLAYING LESS THAN 0.25 IN OF RAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENT WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO PUT A DENT IN THE PERSISTANT
DROUGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP COOL THINGS OFF BRIEFLY, BRINGING
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
FOR THE 22/06Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME SCT120 DECKS NOW CLEARING THE AIRSPACE. ROBUST
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 10-15
KTS, GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS AT 22/15Z BEFORE SLACKENING (BELOW 15 KTS)
AFTER 23/00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 40 58 33 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 67 38 57 31 / 20 10 0 0
DEQ 64 30 53 24 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 66 37 56 30 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 61 34 55 27 / 20 0 0 0
TYR 68 38 58 32 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 70 38 58 31 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 73 39 60 33 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16
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