460
FXUS64 KSHV 231846
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL REBOUND ONLY INTO THE
50S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
- TUESDAY WILL SEE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY AIR,
CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE ARKLATEX IS FIRMLY IN THE GRIP OF NORTHWEST FLOW, SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
DRAPED OVER THE EAST COAST, MAKING FOR AN ACTIVE START TO THE NEW
WEEK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, WE WILL SEE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE, AS THE WINDS OF WINTER FUNNEL FRIGID
CONDITIONS BACK INTO OUR FOUR STATE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK SOUTH, WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER BUT NOT QUITE CALM.
THUS AS OF THIS WRITING, FOG AND FROST DEVELOPMENT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO PRESENT WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.
MONDAY WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A COOL AFTERNOON, AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S AREAWIDE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
RATHER LESS STOUT THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED SUNDAY, SO CONDITIONS MAY
BE A BIT CHILLY BUT LESS BLUSTERY OVERALL. THIS DECREASE IN WIND
SPEED ALSO MAKES FOR A RESPITE FROM THE NEED FOR OFFICIAL FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS, THOUGH IT BEARS REITERATING THAT VEGETATION
REMAINS BONE DRY, AS DOES THE AIRMASS WE WILL STILL BE ENVELOPED IN.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WHICH USHERED IN THE NEW WEEK
WILL LOSE SOME OF THEIR DEFINITION, AND WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW WON'T
EXACTLY FLATTEN OUT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, IT WILL START GIVE
ENOUGH LEEWAY FOR THE RIDGING OVER MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR CONDITIONS, NAMELY BREAKING THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PIVOTING
AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS THESE WINDS PICKING UP IN SPEED, AND WITH OUR DRY
AIRMASS NOT IN A HURRY TO DEPART, ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ALREADY BE ON
ITS WAY OUT TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO MIDDLE 30S WEST, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S, INITIATING A WARMING TREND WHICH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN EMERGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
MAKING FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES OF THE
ARKLATEX THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY,
WITH A HINT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND
AND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
SKC AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AIRSPACE, A THEME THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY,
WINDS WILL GO LGT/VRB FOR MOST, WITH A TURN TO SOUTHERLY BY
SUNRISE. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH THIN CIRRUS ALOFT WILL FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH. BY THE AFTERNOON, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 10KTS WITH GUST NEARING 20KT.
RK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
HOWEVER, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
THEREFORE, RELAYING INFORMATION RELATED TO WILDFIRE ACTIVITY IS
ENCOURAGED.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 32 68 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 28 64 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 26 66 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 33 68 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 25 64 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 36 70 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 33 69 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 33 69 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...53
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