840
FXUS64 KSHV 251801
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT THE SECOND DAY
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MEAN A LITTLE MORE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TODAY COMPARED TO MINIMUMS WE SAW ON TUESDAY.
- WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS TO
PRESENT RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES THU AFTN/NGT.
- SOUTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AND
SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THE BIG STORY LATELY HAS BEEN THE RETURNING WARMTH ON THE HEELS OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRYING SOIL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
CONTINUED HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT THE SECOND DAY OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOWER CLOUDS AND HIGHER
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL STILL BE FELT
TODAY ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NE TX BUT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD FALL JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE WILDFIRE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING FOR
THURSDAY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION
THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY.
LOOKING ALOFT, WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND EMBEDDED IN THAT FLOW WILL BE A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUR WAY THU AFTN/NGT BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF, NOT TO MENTION THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE, RAIN CHANCES
WILL ONLY RESIDE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT SO NOT
SEEING REALLY ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THAT MEANS A WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND IS NEARLY ZONAL AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIVES SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
BECOMES CUTOFF. LOTS OF TIME TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT
TROUGH BUT IF IT OPENS UP TOO QUICKLY, IT COULD RIDE UP AND OVER
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGING WHICH LIKELY WOULD NOT BE TOO IMPACTFUL
ACROSS OUR REGION WHEN IT COMES TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE NOT TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK
NEXT WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A MIX OF MVFR WITH LIMITED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CIGS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAVE HUNG
AROUND. WE SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A RETURN TO VFR FOR MOST AHEAD OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RETURN OF SIMILAR LOW BKN/OVC CIGS.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE COULD BE LOWER WHEN COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT SO PERIODS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR NOT ENTIRELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION IF CIGS OVER PERFORM. THESE LOW CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE BACK END OF THE PERIOD WITH MANY NOT CLIMBING
ABOVE MVFR UNTIL AFTER 26/18Z. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BACK OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
TURN MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW, TRENDIN
AROUND 5KTS.
RK
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AGAIN TODAY, SUSTAINED NEAR 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PINEY WOODS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO THE KISATCHIE DISTRICTS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 35 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO NEAR 50 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE CURRENTLY, WILL BE ISSUING
ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TODAY FOR ALL FIRE DISTRICTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, PLEASE CONTINUE TO RELAY INFORMATION ON WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY FOUR-STATE AREA WIDE, TO HELP OUR FIRST RESPONDERS
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, PLEASE CONTINUE TO RELAY INFORMATION ON WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY FOUR-STATE AREA WIDE, TO HELP OUR FIRST RESPONDERS
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 80 55 78 / 10 20 20 0
MLU 62 79 54 74 / 10 40 50 0
DEQ 50 77 44 75 / 10 10 10 0
TXK 59 79 51 77 / 10 20 10 0
ELD 57 78 48 75 / 10 30 20 0
TYR 61 81 53 79 / 0 10 10 0
GGG 60 81 52 79 / 0 10 10 0
LFK 62 82 57 80 / 0 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...53
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