424
FXUS64 KSHV 281114
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
514 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
- BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER IS ON TAP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR
STATE REGION AS WE EXIT FEBRUARY AND ENTER THE MONTH OF MARCH
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS.
- WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE ENTER THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT WILL BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- WHEN YOU MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH, OF
COURSE THAT MEANS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WHICH WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SFC RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WITH THOSE WINDS, WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S IN A FEW LOCATIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NOT RETURNING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BREEZIER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE CURRENTLY,
NOT TO MENTION AT LEAST TWO ONGOING WILDFIRES BEING BATTLED ACROSS
NE TX, THIS WEEKEND'S WILDFIRE THREAT LEVEL WILL NOT NECESSARILY
BE EXCESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ELEVATED GIVEN THE ABOVE FORECASTED
CONDITIONS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, STILL CARRYING
SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SAT
NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. THIS DUE IN PART TO WEAK FORCING OBSERVED IN
WNW FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE EXPECTED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WE WILL BE LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK.
SPEAKING OF NEXT WEEK AND THAT PATTERN SHIFT, WEAK UPPER RIDGING
WILL MOVE OVHD ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT INTO MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE FORCING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS EJECTING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES IN A 15% PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEXT WED/WED NIGHT AND THIS IS BASED IN
PART TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER THAT IS FCST TO PUSH EASTWARD...APPROACHING
THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NE TX INTO SE OK AND PERHAPS...SW
AR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE CLOSER THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO OUR
REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO
BE UNDER THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, NOT TO
MENTION, EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK, AS WE WAIT FOR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
RELOAD WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PLAGUE OUR
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF MARCH.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS FORECAST WILL START TO BECOME VERY UNSETTLED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE WELL PAST THIS 7-DAY
FORECAST PACKAGE.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCT MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGHOUT,
REMAINING ELEVATED AND PUNCTUATING AREAS OF OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES. GUIDANCE HINTS AT LOWERING CIGS TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD, BUT NOT YET BRINGING OUR PREVAILING GROUPS
OUT OF VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH BY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGH THE MORNING TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WITH A FEW GUSTS OF UP TO 15 MPH ACROSS EAST TEXAS AIRSPACE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PLEASE CONTINUE TO RELAY INFORMATION ON
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR-STATE AREA, TO HELP OUR FIRST
RESPONDERS PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 56 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 80 52 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 80 52 78 47 / 10 20 20 20
TXK 81 57 81 53 / 0 10 10 10
ELD 80 52 78 50 / 0 10 0 0
TYR 82 57 83 56 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 82 55 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 82 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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