087
FXUS64 KSHV 281828
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1228 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
- WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE ENTER THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE ARKLATEX WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE CONTINUING THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH PREVAILING AREAWIDE THIS MORNING AS A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. WARM AIR RETURNING FROM THE
GULF WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE INTO THE LOWER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS MORNING TO SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL HELP
IN DECREASING THE WILDFIRE THREAT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS COULD OFFSET ANY
GAINS FROM THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A MINOR WILDFIRE
THREAT REMAINING.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS, COMBINED WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT, COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
UPPER-RIDGE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST ON MONDAY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO GENERALLY DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF AN LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPC HAS POSTED A
15% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE ARKLATEX FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SET UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
28/18Z TAF PERIOD. SOME AC CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK, BUT GRADUALLY SPREAD E INTO SW AR/WRN
LA BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY
THINNING/SCATTERING OUT BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK CU FIELD MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY OF WRN LA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND
SUNSET. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS AND FG SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER 09Z
SUNDAY OVER CNTRL AND S LA, GRADUALLY SPREADING N INTO PORTIONS OF
DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA THROUGH DAYBREAK, WHICH MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE
LFK TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF LIFR
CIGS HERE, BUT NOT CRATER VSBYS IN FG JUST YET BUT DID REFLECT SOME
VSBY REDUCTION BEFORE LIFTING BY 15Z. WHATEVER LOW CIGS CAN DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THEY
TRY TO LIFT N TOWARDS THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/NW LA, BUT DID
REFLECT MENTION OF SOME STRATUS AND STRATOCU HERE BEFORE A SCATTERED
CU FIELD DEVELOPS BENEATH THE ELEVATED CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
BY AFTERNOON. SSE WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 00Z, EXCEPT AROUND 5KTS OVER E TX. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PLEASE CONTINUE TO RELAY INFORMATION ON
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR-STATE AREA, TO HELP OUR FIRST
RESPONDERS PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 56 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 52 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 53 79 49 78 / 20 20 20 10
TXK 57 82 54 81 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 52 80 51 80 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 58 83 56 80 / 0 10 0 10
GGG 56 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 56 82 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...26
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