763
FXUS64 KSHV 080549
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1149 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOWER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA.
- MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH ANY FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE MIDDAY RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS
SHIFTING ESE ACROSS LOWER E TX INTO N LA, WHICH HAS CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED A COLD FRONT SE TO NEAR A PSN, TO GGG, TO ALONG THE
AR/LA BORDER, TO ELD LINE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
OUTRUN THE 12Z PROGS, WITH THE LATEST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR
INITIALIZING WELL WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION AND CONVECTION, WHICH
SLIDES SE THROUGH LOWER E TX AND N LA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE S BY EARLY EVENING. THE
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS TAME AS OF THIS WRITING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT A LARGE OUTFLOW BNDRY CONTINUES TO OUTRUN THESE STORMS, AND
1-2MB/2HR PRESSURE RISES OVER N TX CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MOMENTUM
TO ALLOW THIS BNDRY TO CONTINUE SLIDING SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA. WHILE THE LATEST VAD STILL MAINTAINS A 25-30KT SWRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE LINE, THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE STORMS TAP GREATER
SBCAPES OF 1500-2000+ J/KG ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY S OF I-20 IN E
TX/N LA. HOWEVER, STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL NOTED OVER S AND SE
TX INTO WCNTRL LA, WHICH MAY ENHANCE STRENGTHENING ONCE MAX SFC
BASED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. SHOULD ANY THREATS MATERIALIZE,
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS, ALTHOUGH THE LARGER
HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SW OF THE REGION IN THE STRONGER SHEAR
REGIME. ONCE AGAIN, THE LATEST NBM POPS ARE GARBAGE WITH THE
ONGOING/EXPECTED CONVECTION, AND REMAINS MUCH TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT, WITH POPS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AS WELL AS THE HRRR
AND ITS PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
DID TAPER POPS BACK CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE NBM THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR, BUT DID MAINTAIN LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FARTHER S THIS EVENING BEFORE SCALING BACK POPS
DOWN TO CHANCE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AS WHAT LITTLE OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WEAKENS N OF THE EXITING FRONT. IN THE MEANTIME, MUCH
NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK
FURTHER TO A HALF INCH TO AN INCH, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT US
STRUGGLING TO GET THROUGH THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR, ALTHOUGH
A PORTION OF THIS COOLER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE
NW ZONES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EROSION OF
THE LOWER CIGS, SHOULD RESULT IN THE COOLEST READINGS HERE
TONIGHT, BUT DID RAISE MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NBM GIVEN ITS
TENDENCY TO STRUGGLE WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS SHOULD SPILL SE WITH THE FROPA LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING, WITH ANY LINGERING POST-FRONTAL -SHRA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
A WELCOME REPRIEVE OF COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS
THE -SHRA DIMINISHES, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONT RETURN N SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE WASHING
OUT MONDAY MORNING. THUS, WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN BACK N, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY. VARIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, AND TRANSLATE E ACROSS NRN OK INTO THE OZARKS
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WEAKNESS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH
DISPARITIES STILL EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXTENT
OF DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE, ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS
THIS WEAKNESS SHIFTS E OF THE MS RIVER.
WE WILL HAVE TO AWAIT THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF
BAJA THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT SITS AND SPINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM JET MONDAY.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW OPENING UP
TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE SRN PLAINS, WHILE ENHANCING A SRLY
LLJ WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. THUS, ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES, BEFORE SPREADING E ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
ATTM, A QLCS LOOKS PROBABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, THUS
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WHILE ALSO PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
BENEFICIAL RAINS. GIVEN THAT THE QPF FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION
IS PROGGED TO UNDERPERFORM GIVEN ITS SE PROGRESSION, FLOODING
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS, BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECT
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO BECOME
VARIABLE ON SUNDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 09/00Z.
PRECIPITION TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST BY 08/09Z WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE. CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT
TO MVFR BY 08/18Z, FOLLOWED BY VFR ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE, COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
/05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, AS WELL AS NORTH LOUISIANA.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 60 74 63 / 90 80 30 20
MLU 84 64 73 63 / 90 80 30 10
DEQ 65 47 73 55 / 90 30 10 20
TXK 66 55 74 61 / 100 50 10 20
ELD 67 58 71 58 / 90 60 20 10
TYR 67 53 75 62 / 90 60 10 30
GGG 68 56 74 62 / 90 70 20 20
LFK 83 63 77 65 / 90 80 50 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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