477
FXUS64 KSHV 081109
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF SUNDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AS
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT.
- A WET PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, AS DAILY RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN'T
RULE OUT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WAS
SOME ORIGINAL THOUGHT THAT THE FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, BUT BASED ON CURRENT PROGS, THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN WAKE OF
THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT DUE TO THE WET SOILS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST ZONES
TODAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT DECIDED TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR THE EXITING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, THE
EXTENT OF THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY ONLY
MAKE IT HALF WAY ACROSS THE REGION, GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE OF
LUFKIN TX...TO SHREVEPORT...TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS, ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. SOME OF THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE LIFTING
FRONT, RESULTING IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY
FOR THAT REASON, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO.
BEYOND MONDAY, LONG-TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MUCH STRONGER
CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN DAILY RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION UNTIL THE TROUGH FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES ON
TUESDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAYS. COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR, IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY PREVAILING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH FINALLY PUSHED THROUGH OUR ENTIRE
AIRSPACE LATE LAST NIGHT. STILL DEALING WITH SOME POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AIRSPACE BUT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LFK TERMINAL. LOOK FOR THESE
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND/OR SCATTER OUT AT THE TXK/ELD/TYR/GGG AND SHV
TERMINALS AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AT
THE MLU AND LFK TERMINALS. LFK MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE MVFR CATEGORIES
CEILING WISE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY ALSO SEE RETURNING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LFK
TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUPPORT AT THE VERY LEAST, RETURNING
MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS SO HAVE ADDED THIS
LATE IN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR OR
LESS THAN 10KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY VARIABLE BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIGHT TO LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 63 80 68 / 20 30 50 10
MLU 74 63 81 67 / 30 10 50 20
DEQ 73 50 76 61 / 0 20 50 20
TXK 75 59 79 68 / 10 20 50 20
ELD 74 56 77 63 / 20 10 50 20
TYR 75 61 80 68 / 10 30 50 10
GGG 76 60 81 66 / 10 30 50 10
LFK 75 63 82 67 / 20 10 50 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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