030
FXUS64 KSHV 081729
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1229 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF SUNDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AS
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT.
- A WET PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, AS DAILY RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN'T
RULE OUT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WAS
SOME ORIGINAL THOUGHT THAT THE FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, BUT BASED ON CURRENT PROGS, THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN WAKE OF
THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT DUE TO THE WET SOILS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST ZONES
TODAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT DECIDED TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR THE EXITING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, THE
EXTENT OF THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY ONLY
MAKE IT HALF WAY ACROSS THE REGION, GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE OF
LUFKIN TX...TO SHREVEPORT...TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS, ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. SOME OF THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE LIFTING
FRONT, RESULTING IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY
FOR THAT REASON, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO.
BEYOND MONDAY, LONG-TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MUCH STRONGER
CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN DAILY RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION UNTIL THE TROUGH FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES ON
TUESDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAYS. COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANYTHING FROM VFR TO IFR/LIFR IS PRESENT. THIS IS LIKELY HOW THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL GO AS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AIRSPACE BATTLE PERSISTENT LOW AND DENSE CIGS WHILE ACROSS THE NW,
VFR AND MOSTLY SKC FOR NOW. THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVERAGE BUT IT WILL BE
BRIEF AS LOW BKN/OVC CIGS BELOW 2KFT RETURN FOR MOST, AND WITH
IT, A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR AND EVEN SOME INSTANCES OF LIFR.
CONVECTIVE HI-RES SUPPORT SUGGESTS THAT THROUGH DAYBREAK, TSRA
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LA I-20 TERMINALS, AND ADVANCE NORTH INTO
THE SW ARKANSAS AIRSPACE. FURTHER SOUTH, LOW CLOUDS AND INSTANCES
OF VSBY REDUCTION MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
EXTENT OF VSBY IMPACTS. FOR NOW, ELECTED TO INTRODUCE BR VSBY
IMPACTS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNRISE FOR
SELECT TERMINALS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 81 68 83 / 20 50 20 10
MLU 63 81 65 85 / 10 60 20 0
DEQ 52 76 63 78 / 10 60 20 50
TXK 61 81 68 82 / 20 60 20 30
ELD 58 77 65 83 / 10 70 20 10
TYR 62 82 68 82 / 30 50 10 30
GGG 62 81 67 83 / 20 50 10 20
LFK 64 82 67 84 / 20 40 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...53
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