459
FXUS64 KSHV 082338
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
638 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RETURN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
- THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
- THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY BNDRY THAT LINGERS
JUST S OF THE REGION OVER SE TX ACROSS S LA N OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. IN FACT, SCATTERED -SHRA CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NEAR
THIS BNDRY ATTM, WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING N ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTY,
LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY, AND CNTRL LA. THE MIDDAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MORNING POST-FRONTAL LOW
STRATUS HAS STRUGGLED TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER MUCH OF
SRN AR AND THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA, WITH STRATOCU CIGS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RETURN N TOWARDS I-20 IN E TX. NOT BUYING THE SHORT
TERM PROGS SCATTERING THESE CIGS OUT THIS AFTERNOON, AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
WHILE ALSO TRIMMING BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SRN
ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE WEAK SFC BNDRY TO OUR S REMAINS PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK
N THIS EVENING, THUS RETURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK N
INTO THE AREA. DID CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FG POTENTIAL
LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SRN ZONES, BUT CONDITIONS AREN'T REALLY IDEAL
GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION THAT WILL BEGIN
TO ENHANCING OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS ATOP THE COOL/SHALLOW AIR
MASS IN PLACE N OF THE RETURNING FRONT. THE SHORT TERM PROGS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EJECT E FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NRN OK TONIGHT, BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSLATING E INTO THE OZARKS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED PVA IN ADVANCE OF THIS PERTURBATION MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
ALONG THE RETURNING PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEEPEN OVERNIGHT, SOME THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND THUS, HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE
FARTHER E THAN THE NBM, WITH DEEPENING THETA-E ADVECTION ENHANCING
DEEPER ASCENT FOR AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE NBM AGAIN REMAINS MUCH TOO
BULLISH WITH ITS LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE MONDAY, AND THUS HAVE BACKED
OFF AND CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO SW AR/NE LA WHERE THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN UPTICK OF CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE MORNING
OVER THESE AREAS. WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EXITING THE
REGION BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING
TROUGH, IT SHOULD NOT TAP INTO THE MEAT OF THE INCREASING SBCAPES
THAT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH INSOLATION, ALTHOUGH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED HAILERS BEFORE GROWING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS ERN AR/NCNTRL MS. GIVEN THE INCREASING PW'S COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING, STILL MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY SERLY EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE CLOSED LOW
THAT SPUN OFF THE OH/MS VALLEY TROUGH FRIDAY AS MIGRATED A LITTLE
FARTHER W OF BAJA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT E ACROSS THE
PENINSULA BY MONDAY NIGHT, ACROSS NRN OLD MX THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY BEFORE EMERGING OUT INTO W TX BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS (WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN THE MORE WWD POSITION OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON), WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK PERTURBATIONS TO EJECT
NE ACROSS N AND NE TX INTO SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR BY AFTERNOON ALONG
AN INCREASING SWRLY LLJ, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS. DID BACK OFF ON THE LIKELY POPS THAT
THE NBM CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TREND WITH THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD IN EJECTING THE CLOSED LOW OUT TOO
QUICKLY IN RECENT DAYS, ALTHOUGH INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF THE
OPENING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
OVER E TX/SE OK/SW AR. WITH A BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR EXPANDING N
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS AND MS VALLEY, INCREASING SHEAR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL YIELD TO EXPANDING
AND EVENTUALLY LINEAR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER WCNTRL AND N
TX/CNTRL OK TUESDAY NIGHT, AS IT SHIFTS E THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THIS CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN/BE SEVERE GIVEN THE LULL IN SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
DURING THE PRE AND JUST BEYOND THE POST-DAWN HOURS, ALTHOUGH A
LATER ARRIVAL INTO OUR REGION AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL YIELD
BETTER INSTABILITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS INSOLATION
COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH'S ATTENDANT COLD
FROPA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS MUCH WARMER AND
EVENTUALLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND ONCE A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RE-ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS OUT OF RANGE OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CEILINGS TO BECOME MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AND
COULD FALL AS LOW AS LIFR BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL SITES FROM 09/12Z THROUGH 10/00Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
/05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, BUT
MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 81 68 83 / 20 50 20 10
MLU 63 81 65 85 / 10 60 20 0
DEQ 52 76 63 78 / 10 60 20 50
TXK 61 81 68 82 / 20 60 20 30
ELD 58 77 65 83 / 10 70 20 10
TYR 62 82 68 82 / 30 50 10 30
GGG 62 81 67 83 / 20 50 10 20
LFK 64 82 67 84 / 20 40 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page