983
FXUS64 KSHV 091020
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
520 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RETURN TO THE
REGION TODAY.
- THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTREME
NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
- THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY RETURNED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION AS A WARM FRONT. CURRENT REGIONAL OBS HAS THE WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA RED RIVER BORDER
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS, JUST NORTH
OF THE LOUISIANA BORDER. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND ITS CURRENT LOCATION
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT-TERM PROGS HAVE A SHORT-
WAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL IGNITE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRONT FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT RISK TODAY, BUT
IT HAS SHIFTED IT MORE INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WITH
ONLY A SLIVER OF EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA REMAINING. WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS, LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON HEATING TO YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SUNSET.
BEYOND TODAY, LONG-TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
BAJA REGION OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, DISTURBANCES WILL
KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERLY ZONES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF A LINE FROM TYLER TX...TO TEXARKANA...TO HOPE AR.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT,
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL FORM AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLAY, ALONG
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
MORNING LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS WE START THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND SHOULD RETURN
TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STARTING TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS SE OK ATTM
AND THAT CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH THIS
MORNING, IMPACTING MAINLY THE TXK/ELD AND MLU TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. LIKEWISE, CANNOT RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY A LITTLE LATER
IN THE DAY AT THE SHV TERMINAL AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AIRSPACE SHOULD HAVE PUSHED EAST BY THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AND THEN WE
WAIT FOR RETURNING MVFR CEILINGS AREAWIDE BY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR SE TO S WINDS
THIS MORNING NEAR 10KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS IN ADDITION
THE THE TXK AND SHV TERMINALS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 68 83 67 / 50 10 10 40
MLU 77 67 83 68 / 50 30 0 10
DEQ 74 62 78 61 / 50 20 30 80
TXK 76 68 82 67 / 50 20 20 70
ELD 75 64 82 64 / 60 20 10 30
TYR 79 68 82 66 / 30 10 20 70
GGG 79 67 83 66 / 40 10 20 60
LFK 78 68 83 66 / 40 10 10 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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