598
FXUS64 KSHV 101125
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
625 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
- A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS PAST EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH MORNING LOWS ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG OVER THE
AREA TODAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS HIGHLY
ADVERTISED CLOSED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION OF
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM TYLER TX...TO TEXARKANA...TO HOPE AR. WE COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT, BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A
TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT AND THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, OUR
FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE TRAVERSING OUT OF WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
A LINEAR LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A SEVERE THREAT WILL STILL REMAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN, THERE COULD BE AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK, AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
WE COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS, WITH MORNING LOWS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS IN THE 40S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
LONG-TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50/LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES, AS LOWS
COULD POSSIBLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
/20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE TO BEGIN
THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. FEEL LIKE THOSE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MVFR BEFORE WE SEE IMPROVEMENT ACROSS ALL OF OUR AIRSPACE BY LATE
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT COULD BE
HAMPERED BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD IMPACT THE TYR/GGG/TXK AND ELD TERMINALS HOWEVER. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT AS WE GO INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY,
A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING OUR WAY FROM N TX WILL POSSIBLY BEGIN
IMPACTING THE TYR/GGG AND TXK TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WED MORNING. LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10-15KTS TODAY WITH
SOME HIGHER PRESSURE GRADIENT GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK AND SHV TERMINALS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 68 76 49 / 30 30 80 70
MLU 81 68 78 49 / 20 10 80 80
DEQ 77 61 70 39 / 50 80 80 30
TXK 79 67 72 46 / 40 80 80 50
ELD 81 65 74 44 / 30 30 80 70
TYR 79 66 72 46 / 40 80 80 50
GGG 80 67 73 46 / 30 60 80 60
LFK 81 67 75 49 / 20 30 80 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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