429
FXUS64 KSHV 101739
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1239 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
- A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS PAST EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH MORNING LOWS ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG OVER THE
AREA TODAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS HIGHLY
ADVERTISED CLOSED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION OF
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM TYLER TX...TO TEXARKANA...TO HOPE AR. WE COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT, BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A
TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT AND THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, OUR
FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE TRAVERSING OUT OF WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
A LINEAR LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A SEVERE THREAT WILL STILL REMAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN, THERE COULD BE AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK, AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
WE COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS, WITH MORNING LOWS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS IN THE 40S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
LONG-TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50/LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES, AS LOWS
COULD POSSIBLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
/20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VERY
LOW-END VFR IN THE 18Z-20Z TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE
ONGOING AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AIRSPACE COULD PROVE TO HAVE AN AFFECT ON
THE TIMING OF THIS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING REGARDING THE EXTENT AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION, BUT
CURRENT TAFS WILL REFLECT A VCTS FOR ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT KELD AND
KLFK AROUND 11/00Z. A BREAK IN CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT (KTXK COULD BE AN EXCEPTION) BEFORE A SQUALL LINE
APPROACHES TOWARDS 11/12Z FROM THE WEST. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN
RAPIDLY IN THE 12-15Z TIMEFRAME UPON ARRIVAL BEFORE REDEVELOPING
TOWARDS 18Z. WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, BREEZY AND GUSTY AT
TIMES (SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS) THRU THE TAF
PERIOD, BECOMING TEMPORARILY ERRATIC AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 76 49 66 / 30 80 70 0
MLU 68 78 49 64 / 10 80 80 10
DEQ 61 70 39 65 / 80 80 30 0
TXK 67 72 46 66 / 80 80 50 0
ELD 65 74 44 64 / 30 80 70 0
TYR 66 72 46 67 / 80 80 50 0
GGG 67 73 46 67 / 60 80 60 0
LFK 67 75 49 67 / 30 80 50 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page