698
FXUS64 KSHV 110607
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
107 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH I-30 OVERNIGHT.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS) WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
- NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ALOFT, THE MAIN DRIVER OF
CONVECTION IS CLOSED TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS, PROJECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT SWIFTLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION LATER TODAY. AS IT DOES SO,
SHORT-RANGE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRAJECTORY OF THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR,
PROMOTING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCING UPDRAFT
SEPARATION. STORM MODES ARE MOST LIKELY TO HOLD MULTI WITH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND SEPARATION,
MORE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING: LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-
NORMAL BY THE END OF THIS WEEK (LOWER 70S/UPPER 40S) AFTER A WEEK
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS REPRIEVE CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY DELIVERS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR (MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF I-30). LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE ROLLERCOASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND
(TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS APPROACHING THE LOWER 80S AGAIN) BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VERY BUSY AVIATION TAF PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT
INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS VALLEY BRINGING WITH IT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS LIKELY SEVERE. CURRENTLY WATCHING A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS N TX/S OK THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST
AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR SO. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS AT
THE TYR/TYR/GGG/SHV AND ELD AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, A NEW
LINE OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OF NE TX AND RAPIDLY EXPAND EAST AND NORTHEAST, ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN HALF AND SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE ALL CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF OUR AIRSPACE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS FOR ALL TERMINALS. PREFRONTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS VERY STRONG THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION OF COURSE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY
STRONG AS WELL WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTH
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS
THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AIRSPACE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 45 64 43 / 90 50 0 0
MLU 82 45 62 40 / 90 80 0 0
DEQ 76 35 64 37 / 80 10 0 0
TXK 77 41 65 43 / 90 30 0 0
ELD 74 40 62 39 / 90 50 0 0
TYR 77 43 66 45 / 80 30 0 0
GGG 76 42 65 42 / 90 50 0 0
LFK 77 45 66 43 / 90 60 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13
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