074
FXUS64 KSHV 111108
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH I-30 OVERNIGHT.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS) WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
- NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ALOFT, THE MAIN DRIVER OF
CONVECTION IS CLOSED TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS, PROJECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT SWIFTLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION LATER TODAY. AS IT DOES SO,
SHORT-RANGE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRAJECTORY OF THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR,
PROMOTING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCING UPDRAFT
SEPARATION. STORM MODES ARE MOST LIKELY TO HOLD MULTI WITH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND SEPARATION,
MORE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING: LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-
NORMAL BY THE END OF THIS WEEK (LOWER 70S/UPPER 40S) AFTER A WEEK
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS REPRIEVE CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY DELIVERS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR (MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF I-30). LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE ROLLERCOASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND
(TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS APPROACHING THE LOWER 80S AGAIN) BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FOR THE 11/12Z TAFS, AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES AS A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
LINE HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. FURTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD, PIVOTING TO NORTHERLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
BREEZIER WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT AND GUSTS
OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 45 64 43 / 90 50 0 0
MLU 82 45 62 40 / 90 80 0 0
DEQ 76 35 64 37 / 80 10 0 0
TXK 77 41 65 43 / 90 30 0 0
ELD 74 40 62 39 / 90 50 0 0
TYR 77 43 66 45 / 80 30 0 0
GGG 76 42 65 42 / 90 50 0 0
LFK 77 45 66 43 / 90 60 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...26
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