471
FXUS64 KSHV 111738
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1238 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES, MAINLY ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND AREAS OF NORTHERN LA SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- A SUBSTANTIAL, YET BRIEF COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS A CLOSED
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW LEVELS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SW THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BOTH THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER/SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION OF OK/AR/LA/TX.
RECENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PORTRAY CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EAST TX. REGIONAL
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, WITH CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE, ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES NEARING 60KTS. THESE PARAMETERS ARE ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH BUOYANCY AND UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION TO MAKE FOR AREAS OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WHICH WILL CARRY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. SRH VALUES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN RATHER MEAGER, LENDING TO LARGELY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST WILL
INHERIT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO: 1) THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE ALONG ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THESE FEATURES
INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LA COULD KEEP SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA. A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK INTO NORTHERN LA WOULD OPEN THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR TO A GREATER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
RIGHT NOW, CURRENT INDICATION IS FOR THIS LOW TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH
OF A NORTHERN TRACK TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 2) THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION
COULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO HAMPER SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WHILE THESE
UNCERTAINTIES CAST SOME DOUBT ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AREAS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE
I-120 CORRIDOR IN LA SHOULD PREPARE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. SUFFICIENT FORCING ALOFT WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY, WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT AND ENOUGH LOCALIZED SRH TO MAKE FOR AN
ALL-HAZARD THREAT, INCLUDING SEVERAL TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH,
COORDINATED WITH THE SPC, WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 6PM CDT. CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
A ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY'S FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, MAKING FOR A MUCH
CHILLIER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. SUNNY
SKIES PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUICK WARM UP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY
LOOKS LOW, WITH BUOYANCY MOSTLY AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING. THE NW
TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO CASTS DOUBT ON THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. EXPECT A VERY NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT,
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 IN MANY AREAS ON MONDAY, AND
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR, WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL SEE A SLOW
WARMING TREND THRU MID-WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
CK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FOR THE 11/06Z TAFS, AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES AS A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD, PIVOTING TO NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
BREEZIER WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT AND GUSTS
OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 45 64 43 75 / 50 0 0 0
MLU 45 62 40 73 / 90 0 0 0
DEQ 35 64 37 73 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 41 65 43 76 / 20 0 0 0
ELD 40 62 39 73 / 70 0 0 0
TYR 43 66 45 77 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 42 65 42 76 / 30 0 0 0
LFK 45 66 43 75 / 50 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...26
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