410
FXUS64 KSHV 121800
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
- A BRIEF WARMUP OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
- SOME NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S. ALOFT, A LESS ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A
DORMANT ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SUNDAY, AS THE TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS. WITHIN THIS PATTERN CHANGE, A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS (40-60%) REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
REPRIEVE FROM WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK
AS A REINFORCING POST-FRONTAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN
EARNEST BY THEN (MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR FREEZING
NORTH OF I-30). LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
ROLLERCOASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE
80 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR WITH SKC AHEAD FOR THIS CYCLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NE
WINDS NOW WILL SLACK AND VEER AFTER 21Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS, AND SOME CALM AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING S/SW
FOR FRIDAY NEAR 10KT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A STRONG FROPA LATE SUNDAY SHIFTING US BACK TO GUSTY
NW OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SCAT T'STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THAT AFTERNOON.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. REPORTS OF
PREVIOUS DAMAGE FROM MARCH 10TH AND 11TH STORMS ARE STILL
WELCOME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 43 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 61 40 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 63 36 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 64 43 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 61 39 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 64 45 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 63 42 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 64 42 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...24
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