249
FXUS64 KSHV 122323
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
623 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP AHEAD OF SUNDAY BEFORE A
STRONG AIRMASS INTRODUCES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR FREEZING TO START NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES, INCLUDING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
THAT SUPPORTED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, EXITED THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BELOW
AVERAGE HIGHS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60'S. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS A GRADUAL WARM UP ALLOWS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE WEEKEND TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL,
WITH LOW AND MID 80'S BY SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
SUPPORTING BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IN THE MEANTIME.
LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF
THE CONUS SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA. FOR THE MOST PART,
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS AS
THE BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A WARMER AIRMASS LOCALLY. THIS LOOKS
TO BE A QUICK MOVING FRONT, WITH STORMS RAPIDLY ADVANCING SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELED SOUNDING
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN LARGE HAIL WILL BE A
CONCERN CITING DEEP LAYER FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND WBZ HEIGHTS WITHIN A RANGE OF 8,000-9,000FT. AT
THE SAME TIME, 850/700MB ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARMER LAYER ALOFT
INDICATIVE OF INHIBITION THAT MAY SUPPRESS WARM SECTOR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT FIRST. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE ARK-LA-
TEX DUE TO CONVECTIVE CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOCAL
FORECAST ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG AIRMASS WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD,
REINTRODUCING THE ARK-LA-TEX TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY REBOUND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS LOCKED IN OVERHEAD DUE TO
UPPER RIDGING INFLUENCE OUT WEST. NOT ONLY WILL THIS AIRMASS BE
COOLER, AND A NOTICEABLE SHIFT FROM THE RECENT WARM-UP, IT WILL ALSO
BE DRIER. THIS WILL TANK RH PERCENTAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE
POST FRONTAL GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE PASSING FRONTAL CONVECTION, RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO
SUNDAY, FIRE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON CITING LOW RH PERCENTAGES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE HAVE SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE WEEK
PRIOR TO THIS, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF CONCERN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS WEEKS IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT TO
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TYR. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 43 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 40 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 37 72 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 44 74 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 39 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 45 75 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 41 74 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 41 73 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...05
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