880
FXUS64 KSHV 131831
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
131 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- A BRIEF WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY WILL INTRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
- SOME NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF WARMUP BEFORE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON AS A
RESULT. ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD BEFORE TROUGHING BEGINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS
TROUGHING EMERGES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, SOME LEE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL AMPLIFY THE DELIVERY OF MORE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
INGREDIENTS LIKE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM, ALREADY
HINTING AT A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT THAT AFTERNOON WITH
ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A SIGNIFICANT POST-FRONTAL COOLDOWN IS ALSO BECOMING MORE LIKELY,
WITH A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-30. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
ROLLERCOASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK (MID-TO UPPER 80S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
NEXT FRIDAY). /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR WITH SOME CIRRUS ON NW FLOW THIS
CYCLE AND MAYBE A LITTLE MIDDECK FOR KLFK AT DAYBREAK. WE MAY SEE
BRIEF BR AS S WINDS RELAX TO 5KT OR LESS THIS EVENING AND THEN
RESUME NEAR 5-15KT BY 15Z. MOISTENING S FLOW WILL RAMP UP THIS
WKND, ESP. ON SUNDAY 10-20G30+KT AHEAD OF A STRONG EARLY EVENING
FROPA. STRONG CAPPING LIMITS CONVECTION UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEARS DOWN WITH T'STORMS POSSIBLE THAT AFTN/EVE. WE'LL SHIFT TO
GUSTY NW OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 51 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 72 47 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 72 43 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 75 51 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 72 46 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 75 52 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 75 49 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 50 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...24
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