621
FXUS64 KSHV 132315
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF
INCREASING RAIN PROSPECTS ON SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
AND BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING.
- THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OUT WEST WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STREAK BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
ANOTHER CLEAR BLUE SKY DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS OUR PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. AT THE SAME TIME, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY AFTER
A COOL MORNING IN THE 30'S AND 40'S. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS, EXPECT FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 80'S FOR SOME THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALL BE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHAT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LOOKING TO SUNDAY, MESSAGING HAS NOT CHANGED WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR A FAST MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT THE LINE WILL EXIT THE REGION SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE PRESENT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80'S. BREEZY SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS
NEARING 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE PRESENT, SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALS
A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO CAP ANY ROBUST CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. THAT BEING SAID, AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
SLICE INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX, DEEP LAYER FLOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS OUTLINE THE COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES AND WBZ HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 8-9KFT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS EARLY ON. FOR NOW, AND UNTIL THE
CAMS CAN GET WITHIN RANGE, THE LOWER-RES GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT WHAT MAY START BRIEFLY DISCRETE
WILL QUICKLY CONGEAL ALONG THE FRONT AND QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FA. WHILE HAIL AND WIND SEEM TO HAVE TAKEN THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SUNDAY, A TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A SHIFT IN
DIRECTION TO NORTHWESTERLY. AGAIN, SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME, THE AIRMASS QUICKLY TRAILING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING SITTING IN
THE UPPER 20'S AND LOW TO MID 30'S. FACTOR IN THE WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT AND FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW AND MIDDLE 20'S THROUGH DAYBREAK. BY THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL
ATTEMPT TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50'S, WITH A ROUGHLY 10 DEG F
INCREASE IN THE MAXT EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE WEST KEEPS THE REGION QUIET
AND DRY. THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING AS THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RH PERCENTAGES IN
THE LOW 20'S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THOUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN IS A TOUCH LOWER GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL, ANY
BURNING SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED CITING THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH IN THE FORECAST.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
FOR THE 14/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY THE PASSING OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, BUT I DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
YET TO MENTION IT FOR ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL. ASIDE FROM THAT, WE
WILL HAVE BOUTS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 77 60 83 / 0 0 0 50
MLU 47 77 58 84 / 0 0 0 30
DEQ 44 76 54 76 / 0 0 0 70
TXK 51 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 60
ELD 46 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 60
TYR 53 79 61 84 / 0 0 0 30
GGG 49 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 40
LFK 50 78 60 84 / 0 0 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page