898
FXUS64 KSHV 280431
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND BRINGS THE REGION BACK INTO THE 80S.
- AN UNSTABLE PATTERN COULD BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. LUCKILY FOR THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIRMASS BECOMES PRONOUNCED WITH THE AFTERNOON DROP
IN RH. AS SUCH, WE ARE UNLIKELY TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO STILL
COMMUNICATE THE FIRE DANGER RISK FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH MANY AREAS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY. AFTER
WHICH, ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AND BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY THAT WILL LINGER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THE PERSISTANT ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TO RETURN AS THE DOMINANT PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET THINGS UP NICELY FOR
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST AND POSSIBLY
BRING SOME RAIN DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY RAIN IN THIS
FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT. BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH CONSENSUS FOR WPC TO BEGIN ADVERTISING ALMOST 1 IN QPF
VALUES ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TX IN THE D1-7 OUTLOOK, WHICH IS PLENTY
MORE THAN THE REGION HAS SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AIRSPACE ATTM WITH
STRONG NE AND ENE POST-FRONTAL WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES. AS WE
GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SUNRISE, WE
SHOULD BEGIN LOSING THESE GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
RELAX. POST-FRONTAL CEILINGS MOSTLY LOW VFR VARIETY BUT THERE ARE
SOME 2-3KFT CEILINGS NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO
START THE TAF PERIOD. AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT
THESE LOW VFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO NEAR 5-8KFT AND BY MID
TO LATE MORNING, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN SCATTERING OUT ACROSS OUR EAST
AND NORTHEAST AIRSPACE. THAT SCATTERING OUT OF VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS AS FAR WEST AS THE TXK AND SHV
TERMINALS BUT 5-6KFT CEILINGS MAY BE STUBBORN TO BREAK ACROSS THE
TYR/GGG AND LFK TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WILL BE FROM THE NE TO ENE NEAR 10KTS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET SAT. EVNG.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 69 49 80 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 50 68 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 43 65 42 78 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 48 67 47 81 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 45 67 43 79 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 52 66 51 82 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 50 68 49 81 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 53 69 51 81 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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