583
FXUS64 KSHV 281818
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
118 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND BRINGS THE REGION BACK INTO THE 80S.
- AN UNSTABLE PATTERN COULD BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. LUCKILY FOR THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIRMASS BECOMES PRONOUNCED WITH THE AFTERNOON DROP
IN RH. AS SUCH, WE ARE UNLIKELY TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO STILL
COMMUNICATE THE FIRE DANGER RISK FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH MANY AREAS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY. AFTER
WHICH, ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AND BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY THAT WILL LINGER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THE PERSISTANT ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TO RETURN AS THE DOMINANT PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET THINGS UP NICELY FOR
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST AND POSSIBLY
BRING SOME RAIN DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY RAIN IN THIS
FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT. BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH CONSENSUS FOR WPC TO BEGIN ADVERTISING ALMOST 1 IN QPF
VALUES ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TX IN THE D1-7 OUTLOOK, WHICH IS PLENTY
MORE THAN THE REGION HAS SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FOR THE 28/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CIGS CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MOST SITES. THE CIGS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5K-10KFT AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD DESPITE THE RECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS OVERALL COVERAGE
OF THESE CIGS, BUT THEY SHOULDN'T ERODE ALTOGETHER DESPITE RECENT
TRENDS SHOWING OTHERWISE. BEYOND THAT, BREEZY E/NE WINDS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LARGELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 80 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 47 81 62 85 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 43 77 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 49 81 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 44 79 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 52 82 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 50 81 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page