495
FXUS64 KSHV 282320
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
620 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, WINDS ARE DECREASING BUT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THE PATTERN CHANGES NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL FAVOR THE RETURN OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LET US BEGIN BY DISCUSSING THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO MONDAY, WHICH IS DRY AND WARM.
GRANTED, THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SOME AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, WE START TO
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A
MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS GOING FORWARD.
MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WILL HAPPEN. EURO SEEMS TO THINK THAT THINGS COULD
START AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY EVENING, WITH THE GFS HOLDING
THINGS OFF TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE
FROM THE TIME THAT IT DOES START MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT
AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
I KNOW THIS IS PRETTY FAR AWAY, BUT AFTER 15 DAYS OF NO RAIN
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, IT IS NICE TO SEE SOMETHING. SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES THAT COME OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. /33/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR CIGS OVER E TX SITES HAVE ERODED
ELSEWHERE SKC TO SEE MORE MIDDECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS
ON THE SURFACE IS SHIFTING FROM OH VALLEY TOWARDS MIDATLANTIC AND
OUR RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR LIGHTLY EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH E/SE TO
SOUTH 5-15KT FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN WITH MID TO
LATE HEATING AND SKIES RAINFREE CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO
THE NEW WEEK WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH SOME MUCH
NEEDED CONVECTION AND YET AGAIN A WEEK OUT, MIDDLE OF NEXT WKND.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 81 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 47 81 62 84 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 43 78 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 49 81 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 44 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 52 81 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 49 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
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