770
FXUS64 KSHV 300524
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1224 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA THIS WEEK.
- SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA COAST TO MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AREAWIDE TODAY. WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR UPPER-
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PROVIDE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY PORTION OF NORTH
LOUISIANA EACH DAY.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD,
CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE REGION BOTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING
BOTH WEATHER EVENTS.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ALONG AN APPROACHING
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE RED-RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE LOW. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SEVERAL PARAMETERS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEMING TO FALL INTO PLACE, DISPLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT FROM THE MAIN UPPER-TROUGH COMBINED WITH MISALIGNED
FORCING LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS
FORECAST TO RACE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. DESPITE A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG
THE FRONT, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE LIMITED BY THE
FACT THAT MOST OF THE NECESSARY FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LEAVING THE ARKLATEX IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT. SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT STAGNANT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
BEGINNING THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. THAT WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS WE SHOULD SEE MVFR AND
PERHAPS SOME IFR CEILINGS RETURNING, LIKELY IMPACTING ALL ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TXK AND ELD TERMINALS BY 12Z.
THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS WINDOW OF SEEING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
RESERVED FOR THE 12-16Z PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WE GO
INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS
SUSTAINED NEAR 10KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 62 86 66 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 85 64 87 65 / 10 0 20 0
DEQ 83 57 83 60 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 85 62 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 84 59 86 62 / 0 0 10 0
TYR 85 63 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 85 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 84 63 86 66 / 0 0 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page