211
FXUS64 KSHV 301743
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1243 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA THIS WEEK.
- SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA COAST TO MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AREAWIDE TODAY. WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR UPPER-
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PROVIDE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY PORTION OF NORTH
LOUISIANA EACH DAY.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD,
CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE REGION BOTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING
BOTH WEATHER EVENTS.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ALONG AN APPROACHING
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE RED-RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE LOW. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SEVERAL PARAMETERS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEMING TO FALL INTO PLACE, DISPLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT FROM THE MAIN UPPER-TROUGH COMBINED WITH MISALIGNED
FORCING LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS
FORECAST TO RACE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. DESPITE A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG
THE FRONT, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE LIMITED BY THE
FACT THAT MOST OF THE NECESSARY FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LEAVING THE ARKLATEX IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT. SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT STAGNANT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THE LOW CIGS FROM THIS MORNING ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THOSE THAT HAVEN'T SHOULD BECOME VFR OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUSTING UP NEAR 20KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING CLOSER TO 8KTS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW STRATUS
DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH AS SOON AS 31/08Z FOR
KLFK THAT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR NORTH THIS DECK WILL TRAVEL, BUT ALL SITES WERE INCLUDED
IN THIS PACKAGE TO BE SAFE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BEING A MAJOR CONCERN AROUND DAYBREAK.
/57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 86 66 86 / 0 10 0 10
MLU 64 87 65 89 / 0 20 0 10
DEQ 57 83 60 83 / 0 0 10 20
TXK 62 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 59 86 62 86 / 0 10 0 10
TYR 63 86 67 87 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 62 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 20
LFK 63 86 66 86 / 0 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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