002
FXUS64 KSHV 302051
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
351 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA BY MID-WEEK AND
AGAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THESE PERIODS.
- COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF. ONCE THIS MORNING'S LOW STRATUS BURNED OFF, TEMPERATURES
HAVE QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SO FAR TODAY.
ALSO ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
WEAKNESS ALOFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH GENERALLY INCLUDES LASALLE AND CALDWELL
PARISHES, ALONG WITH AREAS NEARBY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE SHOULD
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MORNING LOW STRATUS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD RETURN TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AGAIN, POSSIBLY MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS MONROE, LA AND AS
FAR WEST AS NATCHITOCHES, LA. BY WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH PUSH TO GET THIS AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
THE PATTERN WILL START TO SHIFT AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS TO THE
REGION. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING US SOME DECENT
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SOME
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. LONG-TERM PROGS ARE TRYING TO
KEEP SOME DIURNAL DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY, BUT BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AS A STRONGER TROUGH EJECTS OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS, PUSHING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL STILL LIKELY
BE NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT WITH THIS BEING A STRONGER SYSTEM,
SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE IN PLAY AGAIN. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OUR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DETAILS SHOULD BECOME
CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO EACH OF THESE EVENTS. BEHIND
SATURDAY'S FRONT MUCH COOLER AND SEASONALLY NORMAL TYPE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND THE FIRST
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS
AROUND 70 DEGREES. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THE LOW CIGS FROM THIS MORNING ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THOSE THAT HAVEN'T SHOULD BECOME VFR OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUSTING UP NEAR 20KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING CLOSER TO 8KTS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW STRATUS
DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH AS SOON AS 31/08Z FOR
KLFK THAT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR NORTH THIS DECK WILL TRAVEL, BUT ALL SITES WERE INCLUDED
IN THIS PACKAGE TO BE SAFE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BEING A MAJOR CONCERN AROUND DAYBREAK.
/57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 86 66 86 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 64 87 65 88 / 0 20 0 10
DEQ 57 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 62 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 59 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 64 85 66 87 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 62 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 62 85 66 85 / 0 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...57
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