561
FXUS64 KSHV 010027
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
727 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND
AGAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND.
- COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FOR SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION TO FORM WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO, THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND DEEP EAST TEXAS. WITH THAT SAID, DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO MONROE
LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED CONVECTION,
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY SPRING DAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. LOW
STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN AND SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
SUNRISE. THE PATTERN WILL START TO SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW, IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED RANGE, AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. DESPITE THIS,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE, WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL
WASHOUT BEFORE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. BUT, ONGOING
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEFORE DYING OFF. THE EXTENT ON HOW FAR
THIS PRECIPITATION MAKES IT REMAINS A QUESTION, BUT THERE IS
DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT IS GETS TO AREAS WEST OF I-49, WHICH
INCLUDES MOST OF OUR EAST TEXAS ZONES, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, EXTREME
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD ESCAPE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL,
AS MOST OF THE DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
LONG-TERM PROGS ARE TRYING TO KEEP SOME DIURNAL DRIVEN RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT BETTER
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY, AS A STRONGER
TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS,
PUSHING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT WITH THIS BEING A
STRONGER SYSTEM, SEVERE WEATHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT. DETAILS SHOULD
BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT, SO PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND
SEASONALLY NORMAL TYPE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS WILL START
OUT IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, QUIET EVENING WITH THE LAST OF A FEW
SHOWERS DIMINISHING. WE WILL START TO SEE MORE AND MORE AROUND
IN THE COMING DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW 5-15G25KT WITH MORE MORNING
STRATUS, NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KFLK AND BY 09Z FOR OUR I-20
TERMINALS. THESE DECKS WILL LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR BEFORE LUNCH.
MODELS STILL LOOKING AT OUR FIRST UPPER LOW UPPING THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION EARLY THURSDAY AND POP-UPS ON FRIDAY. THEN THE FRONTAL
PUSH WILL RAMP UP COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH FROPA EARLY SUNDAY.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 86 68 81 / 0 20 10 50
MLU 65 88 68 84 / 0 20 0 50
DEQ 59 83 61 79 / 0 10 50 70
TXK 66 87 68 81 / 0 10 30 70
ELD 62 86 65 82 / 0 10 10 50
TYR 67 85 67 81 / 0 10 40 70
GGG 65 85 67 80 / 0 20 30 60
LFK 66 84 67 80 / 0 30 10 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...24
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