619
FXUS64 KSHV 020608
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
108 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE FRIDAY, CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS SE THROUGH ERN AND CNTRL OK
THROUGH PORTIONS OF N AND WCNTRL TX. THIS CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED E
AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE, WITH MLCAPES QUICKLY WANING WITH INCREASED
CIN, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN AN OVERALL SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH
THE STORMS. HOWEVER, IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUE TO COOL IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING E INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE INTO
WRN KS. WHILE THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, THE BEST
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FARTHER NE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT
BEFORE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO SE OK/ADJACENT
SW AR AND E TX SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE MORNING RAINS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REDUCE INSOLATION RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE LAST FEW DAYS. THUS, HAVE
CONCENTRATED CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE AREA, BEFORE REDUCING POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE
AFTERNOON, WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING RAIN-FREE BY SUNSET. STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING NW OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH H850 THETA-E RIDGING AND WEAK
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE OUACHITAS, BUT OTHERWISE, SRLY BNDRY LYR
WINDS AND INCREASING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SW TONIGHT WITH THE
DEPARTING MIDWEST TROUGH, AND AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW MOVING ONTO THE OR COAST THAT WILL PROGRESS E THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IN THE SW FLOW WILL EJECT
NE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING, WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND GIVEN THIS LOWER CONFIDENCE,
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE NBM LIKELY POPS DOWN TO MID AND HIGH
CHANCE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT E
THROUGH THE NATION'S MIDSECTION FRIDAY NIGHT, LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL KS S THROUGH CNTRL AND WRN OK
INTO NW AND W TX, BEFORE SLIDING ESE THROUGH THE OZARKS AND SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS, CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS AREAS NW OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY
BEFORE ENTERING THE NW ZONES. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE RAISED THE
NBM MIN TEMPS WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO COOL, ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING
CONVECTION AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, BELIEVE THAT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW AND DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT NW OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR WITH THE WEAKENING MLCAPES, ALTHOUGH ADEQUATE
FRONTAL FORCING WITHIN A 40-50KT SWRLY LLJ AXIS AND STRONG BULK
SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED MCS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY TRY AND DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA, BUT THE PROGS SUGGEST THAT
OVERALL SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, BUT THESE
TOTALS SHOULD DO LITTLE OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY ALLEVIATING THE
ONGOING DROUGHT, ESPECIALLY AS ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRYNESS
COMMENCES IN WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
TRADEOFF THOUGH WILL BE THE AWAITED RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS S TO THE
GULF COAST, WHICH MAY BE REINFORCED WITH ADDITIONAL SFC RIDGING
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
COMMENCE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS A SSERLY BNDRY LYR FLOW RETURNS,
ALTHOUGH ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL AWAIT UNTIL LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AT WHICH TIME THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION RETURNS. /15/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR NOW IN THE WAKE OF A PSEUDO
ENHANCED SEABREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30-40KT BEFORE THE LAST UPDATE.
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH DAYBREAK, BUT THEY ARE WELL
MODELED TO BE WEAKENING. HEATING MAY FLARE MORE LATER. THEN HIT
OR MISS POP-UPS FOR FRIDAY AND A DECENT LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA EARLY TO MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 67 85 68 / 60 10 50 20
MLU 84 67 87 68 / 40 10 50 20
DEQ 82 63 81 58 / 70 20 50 80
TXK 83 67 85 67 / 80 10 50 60
ELD 82 65 85 67 / 50 10 50 30
TYR 82 69 82 67 / 80 10 30 50
GGG 82 68 83 67 / 80 10 40 40
LFK 80 68 83 68 / 60 10 30 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
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