830
FXUS64 KSHV 022015
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
- WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE FRIDAY, A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SATURDAY'S STORMS.
- COOLER MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION IN WAKE OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
LINE EXCEEDED OUR EXPECTATIONS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION,
WITH A HANDFUL OF OBSERVATIONS IN EAST TEXAS DISPLAYING 1" TO 2".
GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION, ANY AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL IS BENEFICIAL. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES AHEAD OF
THE DECAYING BOUNDARY. SHORT-TERM PROGS ALSO HINT AT SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS IN WAKE OF THIS MORNNG'S
CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME SKEPTICISM TO THIS, AS THOSE AREAS GOT
WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION. BUT, IF WE
CAN GET SOME CLEARING AND SUN, THIS COULD BE ACHIEVABLE. THERE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY SUNSET, ALTHOUGH SOME PROGS ARE KEEPING ISOLATED
CONVECTION NORTH OF I-30 THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME IMPULSES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS, JUMP STARTING SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. BUT, IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, DECIDED TO KEEP SOME WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONGER TROUGH WILL START TO EJECT OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-30 DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
SATURDAY, AND SLOWLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES IN THE RECENT WEEKS, BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL CAPE VALUES COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
LINE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UP TO
DATE DETAILS AND TIMING. BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
/20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS, A LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
KELD TO KSHV AND KLFK, BRINGING BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS AND CIG
TANKING ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT TIMES. IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE LINE TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST, CLEARING KMLU BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, CIGS ARE
RECOVERING TO UPPER MVFR AND LOWER VFR LEVELS WHICH MAY SEE
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
AGAIN AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS, BECOMING
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN BY THE TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS COULD BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 80 69 85 66 / 70 0 40 30
MLU 83 69 87 65 / 40 10 50 20
DEQ 80 64 83 58 / 90 20 50 90
TXK 82 69 87 64 / 80 10 40 70
ELD 80 66 86 63 / 60 10 50 40
TYR 80 69 84 63 / 90 10 30 60
GGG 80 68 85 64 / 90 0 30 50
LFK 80 68 85 65 / 60 0 30 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26
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