135
FXUS64 KSHV 040120
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
820 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR, BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
WHILE PROVIDING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
- SPRINGTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT GRADUALLY RISE,
TO REACH NEAR 80S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SEATED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND SWEEP THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TX BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO STILL BE ONGOING BEFORE THE THE LINE ENTERS SOUTHWEST OK
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER.
COME DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TX THROUGH SOUTHWEST AR. THE SHOWERS
ALONG THIS LINE ARE LIKELY TO RESTRENGTHEN AS THEY ENTER A MORE
FAVORABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES THROUGH DEEP EAST TX AND NORTH CENTRAL LA. THE FRONT AND
THE ASSOCIATED RAIN LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, NOT FULLY EXITING OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MID SUNDAY
MORNING. WPC IS REMAINING OPTIMISTIC WITH THE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM,
AS THEIR RECENT D1-2 QPF IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS RAIN IS VERY NEEDED WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS,
BUT IT WILL TAKE MORE STEADY RAINFALL TO MAKE A TRUE DENT IN THE
REGION'S DROUGHT.
A MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
RAINFALL, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD WORK TO KEEP
THINGS DRY WHILE NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM IMMEDIATELY JUMPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AS HAS BEEN COMMON
RECENTLY. THE NBM STILL HAS A SLOW WARMING TREND OCCURRING THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 80.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN COULD BE ON
THE HORIZON WITH SOME DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
FOR BOTH MORE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WE GET
FURTHER INTO SPRING.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF PERIOD...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, BUT THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WE SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS, BEFORE LOW CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY,
A LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ALONG A COLD FRONT. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THIS
LINE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
BEHIND THE FRONT. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY, BUT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 76 52 70 / 20 90 40 0
MLU 68 81 54 69 / 20 90 80 10
DEQ 58 65 41 70 / 90 100 0 0
TXK 66 71 48 71 / 60 100 20 0
ELD 67 75 47 69 / 40 100 40 0
TYR 65 71 49 70 / 50 100 20 0
GGG 68 74 49 70 / 30 100 20 0
LFK 68 78 54 70 / 20 90 60 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26
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