950
FXUS64 KSHV 062311
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
611 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK, BEFORE THE RETURN OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARE WORKING TO CLEAR
CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST SHY OF AVERAGE, MOSTLY
IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, WHICH NORMALLY WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT SFC WINDS BEING FROM
THE DRIER NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP RH'S LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD THAT BACK
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT LATE TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, NEARING 80 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER PLAINS AND INTO THE ARK-LA-TX ON WEDNESDAY,
WHICH COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHIFTING MUCH OF THE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF OUR CWA TO FOCUS ON
CENTRAL LA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SHORT PERIOD OF MOISTURE
RETURN THAT IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH PRIOR TO THE FORCING
MECHANISM. LUCKILY, MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AND HELP
GIVE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN FROM ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE
FIRMLY IN THE 80S.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT AFTER THE RAIN CLEARS OUT LATE FRIDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW TO
BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE LATE WEEKEND, WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR
EAST. THE RIDGE WILL FURTHER ASSIST WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WITH
THE ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR. SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING AREAS TO OUR
WEST, BUT STILL AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS POTENTIAL AREAS TO WATCH FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WHILE ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY
AGREED TO STAY WEST OF THE ARK-LA-TX ON SUNDAY, MODELS ARE
INCONSISTENT ON BOTH TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS LOW COME MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THIS LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD BE
SETTING UP AND BRING SEVERE WEATHER. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, BUT WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
FOR THE 07/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO I HAVE MAINTAINED
SOME SCT TO BKN AT 250 BEFORE WE CLEAR BACK OUT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE ESE ON TUESDAY. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 47 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 46 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 42 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 47 76 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 44 76 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 74 54 77 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 46 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 47 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...33
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