852
FXUS64 KSHV 070835
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
335 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND, WITH NO
ADDITIONAL RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
THE EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE MID-SOUTH REGION SW INTO ECNTRL TX. MEANWHILE, THE EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS CIGS
QUICKLY SPREADING E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS, AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SE AZ/SW NM. BELIEVE
THAT THE CIRRUS CIGS WILL REMAIN THIN ENOUGH NOT TO OFFSET THE
EXTENT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, BUT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
THE COOLEST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, AS WE UNDERGO A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SECONDARY SFC
RIDGING REMAINS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH/AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY, REINFORCING THE DRY AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN AN ERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
MORE SE. GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION THAT THE PROGS DEPICT NOW IN
MAINTAINING THESE ERLY WINDS AND KEEPING THE GULF CUT OFF, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW REMAINS PROGGED
TO TRAVERSE E INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH
WILL ACT TO THICKEN THE ELEVATED CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE. THESE
THICKENING CIGS WILL DO LITTLE THROUGH TO INHIBIT THE CONTINUED
WARMING TREND, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY EXPECTED, WITH THE
CIGS DETERRING THE EXTENT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS MILDER
(BUT COOL) TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT. DID BUMP UP THE NBM MAX TEMPS 1-2
DEGREES AGAIN TUESDAY, GIVEN THAT THE TREND IN BUMPING UP TEMPS
OVER THE NBM HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND STRONG
INSOLATION SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS. EVEN WITH THE
RETURN OF A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY MID AND LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY,
DRIER AIR SHOULD AGAIN MIX DOWN TO THE SFC AND SLOW THE NWD RETURN
OF GULF MOISTURE. INSOLATION MAY BE MORE LIMITED INITIALLY TO
START THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E OVER THE REGION,
BUT THE ELEVATED CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY THIN/DIMINISH FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN THE RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
WITH THE TROUGH'S DEPARTURE, A WNW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED, WITH ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NOW PROGGED TO BE MORE SHALLOW, THUS
DELAYING ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM REACHING THE SRN ZONES UNTIL
AT LEAST LATE WEEK.
THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY NE FROM THE CNTRL GULF AND OVER OUR REGION INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SE STATES FRIDAY, THUS
MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS TO
START THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE TROUGHING ALONG THE CA COAST
INDUCES SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS. PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS (AND JUST W OF THE
REGION) SATURDAY, BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS IS ABLE TO BE NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH E BY THE INITIAL NE EJECTING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP IN
SHIFTING THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FARTHER E INTO E TX/SE
OK AND POSSIBLY SW AR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE
FLIP FLOPPING OF POPS WITH THE NBM, AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL TROUGH EJECTION AND AND HOW STRONG THE
UPPER RIDGING CAN LINGER AS TO WHETHER THIS CONVECTION CAN BUILD
FARTHER E INTO THE REGION. IN ANY CASE, THE CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS A MORE PROLONGED AND PERSISTENTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, THUS
MAINTAINING NO TIMELY AND ADDITIONAL RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS 24HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE RETURNING FROM THE WEST AND WILL THICKEN AS THE
DAY GOES ON. LOOK FOR LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH WINDS BECOME ESE DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS NEAR
10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 53 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 78 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 75 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 76 53 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 76 48 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 75 55 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 75 53 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 76 52 80 56 / 0 0 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page