888
FXUS64 KSHV 071745
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
- MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY, APART FROM SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
HIGH CIRRUS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON. THESE
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, HELPING KEEP THE AREA
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE 50S. THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID WARMING ONCE THE SUN COMES UP WEDNESDAY
MORNING, REACHING NEAR 80 BY THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AS MODELS ARE DELAYING
THE SOUTHERLY SFC WIND SHIFT UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PREVENT GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION AND MAKE IT
EASIER TO WARM UP EACH DAY. IT WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY WILL KICK
START SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TX FRIDAY. IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, AREAS COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCREASINGLY DRIER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE SFC WIND
SHIFT BEING PUSHED LATER WITH EACH RUN. EVEN IF THERE IS RAIN
FRIDAY, IT WILL DO LITTLE GOOD FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT ON RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING OVER NORTHERN CA Y
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS MOVING DOWN THE FLOW.
THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A LEADING
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TX UP THROUGH IA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
ASSUMING THAT THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT DOES HAPPEN ON THURSDAY
LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS, THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
PRIMED WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF THIS SOURCE OF LIFT. THERE COULD BE SEVERE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED BY INCLUDING OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE D7 OUTLOOK. RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER COULD
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND TRACK
OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS 24HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE RETURNING FROM THE WEST AND WILL THICKEN AS THE
DAY GOES ON. LOOK FOR LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH WINDS BECOME ESE DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS NEAR
10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 52 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 47 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 53 79 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 48 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 55 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 53 78 56 82 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 52 80 56 82 / 0 10 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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