505
FXUS64 KSHV 072321
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
- MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY, APART FROM SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
HIGH CIRRUS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON. THESE
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, HELPING KEEP THE AREA
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE 50S. THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID WARMING ONCE THE SUN COMES UP WEDNESDAY
MORNING, REACHING NEAR 80 BY THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AS MODELS ARE DELAYING
THE SOUTHERLY SFC WIND SHIFT UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PREVENT GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION AND MAKE IT
EASIER TO WARM UP EACH DAY. IT WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY WILL KICK
START SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TX FRIDAY. IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, AREAS COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCREASINGLY DRIER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE SFC WIND
SHIFT BEING PUSHED LATER WITH EACH RUN. EVEN IF THERE IS RAIN
FRIDAY, IT WILL DO LITTLE GOOD FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT ON RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING OVER NORTHERN CA Y
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS MOVING DOWN THE FLOW.
THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A LEADING
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TX UP THROUGH IA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
ASSUMING THAT THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT DOES HAPPEN ON THURSDAY
LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS, THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
PRIMED WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF THIS SOURCE OF LIFT. THERE COULD BE SEVERE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED BY INCLUDING OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE D7 OUTLOOK. RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER COULD
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND TRACK
OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
FOR THE 08/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS
PERIOD AND HAVE MENTION OF SCT TO OVC CLOUDS AT THESE LEVELS
THROUGHOUT. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND WILL
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD
AND GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SE. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 55 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 53 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 48 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 53 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 51 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 54 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 53 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 53 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...33
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