913
FXUS64 KSHV 080616
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- A NICE AND DRY WARMING TREND WILL UNFOLD THIS WORK WEEK WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
- THE WEEK'S END WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR FAR WESTERN TX COUNTIES.
- A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK FOR ALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
WE ARE LOOKING AT A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OR
FEW MORE DAYS AS THE LARGE SURFACE AIR MASS OF LATE IS NOW MOVING
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS VERY LARGE AIR MASS HAS SCOURED
A GOOD BIT OF THE GULF OF AMERICA WITH IT'S NE WINDS, SO WHILE
OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE SHIFTING BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY, THE
RICHER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE A WHILE COMING THIS FAR INLAND.
NO BIG HURRY FOR THAT AS OUR RECENT RAINFALL HAS FURTHERED THE
GREEN UP LIMITING OUR FIRE DANGERS OF LAST MONTH. SOME BURN BANS
REMAIN AND AN UPDATED MAP CAN BE FOUND ON THE TOP TABS OF OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.
OVERALL, MINIMUM RH FOR THE AFTERNOONS FARES BETTER WITH SE WIND
COMPARED TO SW ANYWAY. SO, HOPEFULLY THAT AND COMING RAINS THAT
ARE NOW SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO LONG TERM MODELS, CAN ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE AND CONTINUE TO LIMIT A RETURNING THREAT. THE DROUGHT
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR-STATE AREA AND WILL
REQUIRE SEVERAL MORE SOAKING EVENTS TO FULLY SET ALL OF OUR
CONCERNS ASIDE. MEANWHILE, OUR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MID TO
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME MORE RAIN WILL EDGE INTO OUR
TX COUNTIES BY FRIDAY.
THIS COMING CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER THE MIDWEST U.S. AND WILL BE WEAKENING AS THIS CHANCE
FOR ACTIVITY SPREADS FARTHER EASTWARD. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY WE WILL
SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE, HEATING AND LESS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND MORE
OF THAT NEEDED SW FLOW ALOFT SPREADING OVER TEXAS AND INTO THE
ARKLAMISS. SO THAT'S WHERE THE QPF WILL BE BEST, OVER TEXAS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, BUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS IN THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO SPREAD THAT NEEDED SW FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. THE CPC HAS ISSUED
THEIR OUTLOOK YESTERDAY FOR THE COMING DAYS 8 TO 14, AND WE HAVE
A GRADIENT OF ABOVE AVERAGE (WEST) TO NEAR AVERAGE (EAST) FOR
EXPECTED RAINFALL DURING MID TO LATE MONTH. SO MORE GOOD NEWS FOR
SURE AS APRIL EARNS IT'S NAME SAKE FOR THE MAY FLOWERS THAT ARE
ALREADY BLOOMING IN MANY CASES. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
FOR THE 08/06Z TAF PERIOD...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS 24HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL CURRENTLY BUT AFTER SUNRISE, WE SHOULD SEE THIS
CLOUD COVER MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS 24HR TAF WINDOW AND WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE
12Z TAF PACKAGE IF NECESSARY. LOOK FOR SSE TO ESE WINDS TODAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR NEAR 10KTS BEYOND 14Z THIS MORNING WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 57 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 82 53 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 78 49 80 55 / 0 0 10 0
TXK 81 56 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 80 52 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 79 57 81 61 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 81 55 82 60 / 0 0 10 0
LFK 81 57 82 61 / 0 0 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
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