845
FXUS64 KSHV 091706
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1206 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- WE CAN EXPECT 80S ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY AS OUR WARMING TREND
CONTINUES, AND YET NOT MUCH 24 HOUR CHANGE ON OUR DEW POINTS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SKIRT NEARBY OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
PARISHES AND COUNTIES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH AN UPTICK IN MIN
RH LEVELS.
- STRONG SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLATEX FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED AREAWIDE. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN-
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING
WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND A
CONTINUOUS FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
AT THIS TIME, A BROAD SPC 15% RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS, REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE
ARKLATEX FOR SUNDAY. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY EVENING.
ON MONDAY, THE MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE RED-RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE.
WITH THE PATTERN REMAINING NEARLY UNCHANGED AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. AT THIS TIME, AN SPC 15% SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK CLIPS MCCURTAIN AND RED RIVER COUNTIES ON TUESDAY,
WHILE ON WEDNESDAY THE SPC SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ENCOMPASSES
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ARKLATEX. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS THESE
OUTLOOKS ARE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO EACH OF THESE EVENT DAYS.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ANY TO ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOMEWHERE IN THE ARKLATEX FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AIRSPACE THROUGH
THE 24HR TAF CYCLE. DID TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AT THE LFK AND TYR
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME
BRIEF CEILINGS NEAR 1KFT THAT COULD SKIRT THESE TWO TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. WE WILL HOWEVER SEE A DESCENT CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AIRSPACE. ALSO
LOOK FOR THIS HIGH CLOUDS TO RETURN ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE LATE TODAY
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE AID OF MIXING, WINDS
WILL BECOME S TO SE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 7-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 83 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 80 56 82 57 / 0 0 20 0
TXK 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 0
ELD 82 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 82 62 82 63 / 0 0 20 10
GGG 82 61 83 61 / 0 0 20 10
LFK 82 62 80 62 / 0 0 30 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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