230
FXUS64 KSHV 100036
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
736 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- WE CAN EXPECT 80S ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY AS OUR WARMING TREND
CONTINUES, AND YET NOT MUCH 24 HOUR CHANGE ON OUR DEW POINTS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SKIRT NEARBY OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
PARISHES AND COUNTIES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH AN UPTICK IN MIN
RH LEVELS.
- STRONG SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLATEX FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED AREAWIDE. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN-
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING
WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND A
CONTINUOUS FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
AT THIS TIME, A BROAD SPC 15% RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS, REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE
ARKLATEX FOR SUNDAY. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY EVENING.
ON MONDAY, THE MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE RED-RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE.
WITH THE PATTERN REMAINING NEARLY UNCHANGED AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. AT THIS TIME, AN SPC 15% SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK CLIPS MCCURTAIN AND RED RIVER COUNTIES ON TUESDAY,
WHILE ON WEDNESDAY THE SPC SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ENCOMPASSES
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ARKLATEX. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS THESE
OUTLOOKS ARE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO EACH OF THESE EVENT DAYS.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ANY TO ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOMEWHERE IN THE ARKLATEX FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
FOR THE 10/00Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING
ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE AS A CU FIELD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WITH PERSISTENT SE FLOW, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE MORE LOW STRATUS COVERAGE ON FRIDAY WITH
MVFR CIGS LIKELY IMPACTING OUR WESTERN TERMINALS ACROSS EAST TX
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. FARTHER EASTWARD, LOW STRATUS ISN'T
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXPANSIVE SO KEPT LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTH AR AND NORTH LA FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, LOOK ANOTHER HEALTHY CU
FIELD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SE WINDS FROM
5-10 KTS ON AVERAGE.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 84 62 85 / 0 10 0 0
MLU 58 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 56 82 57 82 / 0 20 0 10
TXK 61 84 62 85 / 0 10 0 10
ELD 58 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 62 82 63 84 / 0 20 10 10
GGG 61 83 61 84 / 0 20 10 10
LFK 62 80 62 84 / 0 30 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...19
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