125
FXUS64 KSHV 100624
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
124 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
- WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH 80S FOR HIGHS AND
OUR LOWS WILL BE BACK TO MID APRIL AVERAGES OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
- THE WEEKEND WILL GET A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR OK/TX COUNTIES.
- THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS HAVE POSTED A GENERAL AND
MARGINAL RISKS EDGING INTO OUR FOUR-STATE AREA THAT WILL BUMP
UP TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SLIGHT RISKS DURING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SOME CHANGES WILL BE SEEN WITH OUR AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH OUR HIGHS WARMING AND KEEPING ABOVE AVERAGE 80S
FOR MOST AFTERNOONS. OUR LOWS WILL ALSO BE GETTING BACK TO AVERAGE
THIS MORNING FOR SOME, WITH THAT TREND SEEING FURTHER GAINS AS
SOME MID 60S ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AND EVEN UPPER 60S DURING EARLY TO
MID OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPANDING OVER DEEP E TX TODAY
AND FOR MUCH MORE OF OUR TX COUNTIES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
PARTS OF LA DURING NEXT WEEK. THE SPC SLIGHT RISKS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL NEXT WORK WEEK, BUT THE WPC DOES HAVE POSTED A MARGINAL RISK
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ACROSS OUR I-30 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION ARRIVING INTO AND ALONG OUR I-30 CORRIDOR.
OVERALL, WE HAVE SEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE ASIDE FROM
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. THE SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES FOR THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF OUR LAST CHILLY
AIR MASS DEPARTING. THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST
CONTINUES AS SEVERAL CORE UPPER LOWS DIG IN, BUT ALL END UP
WEAKENING/FILLING AS THEY CROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN
ADDITION, THE NOW SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA WILL BUILD TO A 591DAM CLOSED UPPER CORE, WHILE
THE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY WITH THE LONG WAVE
SLOWLY ENCROACHING.
THIS IS THE BATTLE ZONE FOR CONVECTION WITH THAT NEEDED SW FLOW OF
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY BY SUNDAY, BUT STILL BUFFERING ON THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. SO, THE RAINFALL OUR FOUR-STATE'S RECEIVE WILL BE
GREATLY VARIED WITH A NW TO SE GRADIENT FOR DAYS AS THE PATTERN
ONLY SLOWLY ADVANCES, WHICH IS TYPICALLY EXPERIENCED THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LONGER DAYS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP A STEADY
COURSE THROUGH THE SPRING MONTHS.
THERE IS A NOTE WORTHY CHANGE IN THE MATTER OF RAINFALL AS THE
LANINA HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED, SHIFTING TO AN ENSO-NUETRAL WATER
TEMPERATURE RANGE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AND EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
RAPID WARMING TO AN EL NINO OR EVEN SUPER EL NINO COMING SOON TO
OUR RAIN GAUGES. FOR NOW THE SUBTLE CHANGE IS ON PACE FOR ONLY A
LITTLE DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF APRIL, BUT LIKELY
BEYOND, LEANING AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE RAINFALL ON THE CPC
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK BY THE LAST WEEK OF THIS MONTH. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
FOR THE 10/06Z TAF PERIOD...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N LA AND SW AR THROUGH THE 10/06Z
TAF PERIOD, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 07-10Z
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX, AND SPREAD N TOWARDS THE I-20
TERMINALS BY 12Z, AFFECTING LFK, TYR, AND POSSIBLY GGG. THESE CIGS
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS THEY LIFT, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR BY 16-17Z. A SCATTERED CU FIELD SHOULD
DEVELOP ELSEWHERE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, BEFORE MOSTLY DIMINISHING
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E AND SE TX, AND COULD AFFECT
LFK AND AREAS JUST W OF TYR BETWEEN 21-00Z. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDES VCSH MENTION AT THOSE TERMINALS ATTM. SOME ELEVATED CU/LOW
AC FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY LINGER THIS EVENING THOUGH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E TX. ANY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
AWAIT UNTIL JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD BEFORE DEVELOPING,
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LFK/TYR TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN. ESE WINDS
3-7KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SSE 5-8KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 63 85 65 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 84 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 82 57 83 61 / 20 10 10 0
TXK 83 62 86 66 / 10 0 10 0
ELD 83 59 86 61 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 83 63 83 65 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 83 62 85 64 / 20 10 10 0
LFK 80 62 83 65 / 40 10 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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