234
FXUS64 KSHV 101822
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
122 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
- CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG STORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING
AND IMPACTS OF ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
GOOD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. A WEAKNESS ALOFT HUGGING THE NW GULF COAST
WILL PROVIDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA LATER TODAY BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES LATER THIS
EVENING. DIDN'T CHANGE MUCH TO OUR POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY WITH LOW END CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
WE ARE LEFT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
DID ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL GIVEN THE UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE WITH FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING THROUGH
THE 80S, PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS TO
OUR EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY PIVOTS
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND THUS, OUR REGION BECOMES MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING PVA ADVANCING
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY, SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND I COULD SEE THAT MARGINAL THREAT
BEING EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD WITH THEIR UPDATED
OUTLOOK LATER TODAY. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SLIGHT RISK ON SUNDAY CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR REGION EXPANDING
EASTWARD AS WELL, PERHAPS ENCOMPASSING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES GIVEN
DETERMINISTIC INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BUT BY FAR, THE BULK OF ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR
REGION WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL EXIST.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED YET
UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD COMING UP. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BECAUSE
THE APEX OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCKED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH UPPER RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OUR WEATHER IN THIS KIND OF
FLOW WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EJECTIONS OF THESE WEAK
PERTURBATIONS COMING OUR WAY OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND
PROGS TRADITIONALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES
BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND ON A MORE STAGNANT UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH AS WELL AND THAT
COULD MEAN A DRIER UPCOMING WORK WEEK THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
DEPICTING. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODIFIED AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT I'M NOT
SEEING ANYTHING BEYOND SUNDAY THAT WOULD SUGGEST AN EXCESSIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS ANY OF OUR REGION UNTIL WE SEE A
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
FOR THE 10/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS CONTINUE UNTIL 11/10Z-15Z
AS A PATCH OF MVFR/IFR CIGS DRIFTS IN FROM LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AIRSPACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 86 64 83 / 0 0 0 30
MLU 60 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 56 83 61 79 / 0 10 0 60
TXK 61 86 66 83 / 0 0 0 40
ELD 58 85 62 84 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 63 84 65 81 / 0 10 10 60
GGG 62 85 64 81 / 0 10 0 50
LFK 62 84 64 81 / 10 10 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...16
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