039
FXUS64 KSHV 111140 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- THE CURRENT WARMING TREND PEAKS TODAY AS ADDED CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE TEMPERATURES BACK A TAD.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG STORMS REMAINS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FOUR-STATE AREA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT TIMING AND
IMPACTS OF ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A NICE END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH SEVERAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER DEEP EAST TX AND CENLA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AND HONESTLY LINGERING LONGER THAN EXPECTED
AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS WAS THE CLOSEST LOOK TO A SEA BREEZE IN A
GOOD WHILE WITH AN UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
FEATURE HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED NOW WITH A DRIFT INLAND OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MODELED TO BE ON OUR FRINGE
OF TX COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE SPC CONCURS HAVING DRAWN THEIR
GENERAL RISK LINE JUST TO OUR WEST FOR THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER NICE WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR
MOST SITES. OUR LOWS CONTINUE WARMING AS WELL WITH 60S NOW A
FIXTURE FOR US FOR THIS NEXT WEEK IN MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WE LOOK TO SEE COOLER 50S RETURN BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS. UNTIL THEN, HOPEFULLY SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. HOWEVER, AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY, WE WILL KEEP A GRADIENT
OF WET TO DRY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO
THE CLASH ZONE OF DEEP UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. SO HOPEFULLY WE DO GET TO SEE THOSE
COOLER 50S RETURN NEXT WEEKEND ONLY AFTER SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR LA PARISHES AS WELL.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE CLOUDINESS AND FINALLY THE STORMS EDGING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE SPC DAY 2 CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF
OUR W/NW WITH A GENERAL RISK LINE RIDING NE FROM NATCHITOCHES UP
TO NEAR MONROE. OUR I-30 CORRIDOR HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 70S
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AREAS WITH MORE 80S ELSEWHERE. THEN THE
NEW WORK WEEK WILL SEE A LOSS OF GROUND AS CONVECTION IS COMING
IN A BIT LIGHTER AND EVEN SHUNTED BACK WESTWARD A TAD. WE MAY HAVE
TO WAIT FOR THAT AIR MASS BRINGING BACK THE COOLER AIR NEXT
WEEKEND TO GIVE US THE NEEDED LIFT AND SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA. HOWEVER,
THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT UNFOLDS IS STILL FORETOLD BY SOLO DAY 3
ERO FROM THE WPC, THAT COINCIDES WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEYOND THAT EVENT, WE MAY END
UP HAVING TO HURRY UP AND WAIT FOR MORE, AS THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
HEAT REBUILDS IN THE PUSH BACK WESTWARD OF THE MODELED CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
EXTENSIVE IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD N ACROSS MUCH OF
E TX THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF E TX AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF ADJACENT NW
LA AND SW AR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING/RETURNING TO VFR.
HAVE TEMPOED IN LOW MVFR CIGS AT SHV/TXK THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH
VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BEFORE EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT LATE
IN THE DAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP E AND ECNTRL TX, AND MAY AFFECT THE TYR/LFK
TERMINALS. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH HERE BETWEEN 21-01Z BEFORE THIS
CONVECTION DIMINISHES EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ELEVATED CIGS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR, WITH LOW MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO AGAIN REDEVELOP AFTER 07Z OVER DEEP E AND SE TX
AND QUICKLY SPREAD N THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AFFECTING THE E TX
AND SHV TERMINALS BETWEEN 08-12Z, AND POSSIBLY TXK SHORTLY
THEREAFTERWARDS. SSE WINDS 5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
EVENING AND PERHAPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT, ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS,
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 65 82 67 / 10 10 40 50
MLU 87 60 87 66 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 82 61 78 62 / 20 10 70 70
TXK 86 65 83 67 / 10 10 60 70
ELD 85 61 85 63 / 0 0 20 50
TYR 83 65 79 68 / 20 10 70 60
GGG 85 64 81 66 / 10 10 60 60
LFK 85 65 81 66 / 20 10 50 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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