783
FXUS64 KSHV 121155 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
655 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMNANTS WILL BE EDGING
ACROSS TX/OK TODAY WITH MORE TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING PUSHING
EASTWARD.
- WE HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY
IN THE DAY AND THEN MORE WILL POSSIBLE WITH HEATING BY MIDDAY
AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD TO ALONG I-49 BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A MILD START TODAY WILL FIND LOW TO MID 60S, KEEPING IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY N AND W,
BUT STILL MORE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY EAST OF I-49 WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND MANY SHORT TERM MODELS PAINT
SOME GOOD QPF MOVING NORTH OF I-30 BY DAYBREAK WITH A WEAKER PUSH
ALONG I-20 EARLY THAT WILL WEAKEN BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN COOLED BOUNDARIES WITH SOME MOMENTUM INTO THE HEART OF OUR
FOUR STATE AREA AS ADDITION CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL TX.
PLUS WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD
REFIRE DEVELOPMENT AND POP-UP SOME STRONG CONVECTION WITH THE
EXPECTED ABOVE AVERAGE HEATING ALONG THE LEADING BOUNDARY EDGE.
THIS SECOND STRONGER PUSH FROM CENTRAL TX WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED TO
PUSH ALONG AND UNDER OUR I-30 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON, AND
TRAILING DOWN ACROSS I-20 IN E TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
PUSH WILL HAVE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
ACTIVITY WHILE EDGING TOWARD TEXARKANA AND SHREVEPORT FOR THE
LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.
THE SPC HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AT ALL WITH SW AR AND SOME OF NW LA
STILL IN THEIR NEW DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY,
WHICH WILL BECOMING ACTIVE AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.
THE QPF IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR MASSES, BUT DUE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT OF SOME THE CLUSTERING POTENTIAL, THE WPC CONTINUES THEIR
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TO SEE CONVECTION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS PUSH WILL BE IT FOR NOW, BUT MONDAY WILL KEEP SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE, BUT UNTIL THE LONG WAVE OUT WEST
RELOADS WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW BY MIDWEEK TAKING AIM ON OUR NW
THIRD OF COUNTIES IN OK/TX. THE STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO BUFFER
UP AGAINST THE BIG UPPER RIDGE HOLDING STATION OVER THE SE U.S.
THE CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FEEL A LITTLE MUGGY AND
QUITE WARM WITH WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SPC HAS ADDITIONAL SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISKS FOR SEVERE ON
THEIR DAY 5 FOR OUR WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIKEWISE, THE
WPC REPOSITIONS ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DURING MIDWEEK WITH THIS NEXT PUSH ON THEIR NEW DAY 4,
WITH THIS NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG I-30
AND I-20 IN E TX. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT, BEYOND MIDWEEK TO LATE
WEEK AS CONVECTION WANES, WE WILL SEE MORE 60S FOR LOWS WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S LATE WEEK AHEAD OF OUR THIRD ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH
MUCH BETTER COVERAGE FOR ALL DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS A DECENT COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OUR S/SW WINDS TO NW DURING SATURDAY. THE MODELS
PAINT UP SOME GOOD QPF WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY POST FRONTAL,
LIKE OUR LAST GOOD RAIN. THIS ARRIVING AIR MASS WILL BRING BACK
COOLER MORNINGS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD NNE INTO MUCH OF E
TX/WRN LA THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD TO SHIFT FARTHER N INTO SE OK
AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THESE
CIGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT OVER E TX THIS MORNING, AS A DECAYING
AREA OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENE INTO NE TX. THESE -SHRA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NW LA BY MID AND LATE
MORNING, BUT LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER AS WELL AS REDUCED VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED AS THEY DIMINISH. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL DEEPER CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER SW ACROSS CNTRL AND ECNTRL TX,
WHICH MAY SPREAD ENE INTO E TX AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NW LA/SW AR,
AFFECTING ALL BUT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS. UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXTENT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THOUGH, BUT SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS, MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE, BEFORE MORE EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
SPREAD NNE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY, WITH THE IFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS AGAIN TAKING A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING TO LIFT/RETURN TO
VFR. S WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO
7-12KTS AFTER 00Z, EXCEPT GUSTY IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 68 85 67 / 40 50 40 0
MLU 87 67 87 65 / 10 20 30 0
DEQ 78 62 79 62 / 70 70 60 10
TXK 82 68 83 67 / 60 60 60 10
ELD 84 64 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
TYR 79 68 82 68 / 80 60 30 0
GGG 82 66 83 67 / 60 60 40 0
LFK 82 67 84 67 / 50 50 30 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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