470
FXUS64 KSHV 121702
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1202 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- AN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA PERIODICALLY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL, DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DESPITE
PERIODS OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING DEPICTS A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE PNW, WHERE THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES A CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN CA COAST AND DEEP SW FLOW ORIENTED TO THE
EAST OF ITS BASE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE ROCKIES AND
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FLOW THEN
EXISTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE S/SW OF ITS CENTER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. A WEAK
SFC TROUGH THEN EXTENDS FROM THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS OK AND INTO E
TX, WHICH MAY IN PART EITHER BE DEFINED OR ENHANCED BY SOME
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
ACROSS C/E TX EARLIER THIS MORNING, PER RECENT MRMS MOSAIC TRENDS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, A TRICKY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS LIKELY TO BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS E TX. THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY ELEVATED WITH MAINLY A LOW-END THREAT
FOR SMALL HAIL AND BREEZY WIND. HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING
UP ON THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY WELL AND ARE SUGGESTIVE OF THIS
COMPLEX'S TOTAL DECAY. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, WILL WATCH THIS ACTIVITY AND
ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD POOL FOR POSSIBLE
REINTENSIFICATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THIS ACTIVITY,
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING OVER S-C TX, EVIDENCED IN
RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY. THIS
ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS E-C TX FROM A POTENTIAL MCV ARE WHAT CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTIVE COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE AIDED BY A GLANCING SPEED MAX IN THE H5 FLOW,
ALONG WITH DECENT FLOW IN THE 850-500MB LAYER TO SUPPORT ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AMIDST 60S DEWPOINTS LENDING TO
AROUND 1000-1500J/KG MLCAPE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND,
ALTHOUGH A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS DO NOT SEEM IMPOSSIBLE. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ACROSS E TX,
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY EXPLAINED ABOVE, NW LA, SE OK, AND
SW AR STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER. LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY MEAGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS ALSO A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PROVIDED PW VALUES AROUND 1.5IN +, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS OF E TX.
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE CLOSED LOW OVER N CA WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION, HELPING TO MAINTAIN DEEP SW
FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SFC OR UPPER LEVEL
FORCING, DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE VERY ORGANIZED OR CARRY
AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BY TUESDAY, PROGRESSION OF
THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UP NEAR KS,
RESULTING IN FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A FEW AFTERNOON AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST CLOSER
TO THE LEE CYCLONE AND IT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. IT'S EVEN
POSSIBLE THE CWA COULD STAY DRY TUESDAY AS A GULF RIDGE ATTEMPTS
TO NOSE INTO THE AREA. BY MID-WEEK, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA, AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY PROVIDED THAT THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO MOVE THRU THE AREA
SLOWLY GIVEN THAT THE PARENT LOW WILL BE MOVING MUCH FARTHER NORTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER OPPORTUNITY A
BIT LESS CLEAR BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF THE MOVEMENT AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WITH TIME.
CK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD NNE INTO MUCH OF E
TX/WRN LA THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD TO SHIFT FARTHER N INTO SE OK
AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THESE
CIGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT OVER E TX THIS MORNING, AS A DECAYING
AREA OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENE INTO NE TX. THESE -SHRA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NW LA BY MID AND LATE
MORNING, BUT LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER AS WELL AS REDUCED VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED AS THEY DIMINISH. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL DEEPER CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER SW ACROSS CNTRL AND ECNTRL TX,
WHICH MAY SPREAD ENE INTO E TX AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NW LA/SW AR,
AFFECTING ALL BUT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS. UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXTENT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THOUGH, BUT SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS, MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE, BEFORE MORE EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
SPREAD NNE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY, WITH THE IFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS AGAIN TAKING A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING TO LIFT/RETURN TO
VFR. S WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO
7-12KTS AFTER 00Z, EXCEPT GUSTY IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 85 67 86 / 50 40 0 0
MLU 67 87 65 88 / 20 30 0 0
DEQ 62 79 62 81 / 70 60 10 10
TXK 68 83 67 85 / 60 60 10 10
ELD 64 84 63 86 / 50 50 10 0
TYR 68 82 68 83 / 60 30 0 10
GGG 66 83 67 85 / 60 40 0 0
LFK 67 84 67 86 / 50 30 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page