827
FXUS64 KSHV 130658
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
158 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXITING OUR PARISHES OVER LA EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT ALSO MOVING BACK INTO NE AND DEEP EAST TX.
- WE DO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FROM TYLER TO LUFKIN & NACOGDOCHES.
- THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
DURING MIDWEEK AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
MANY AREAS IN OUR FOUR-STATE AREA SAW SOME DECENT RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY WITH MORE ARRIVING THIS EARLY MORNING NOW MOVING THROUGH
WACO AND PALESTINE AND EDGING INTO CHEROKEE AND ANGELINA COUNTIES
NOW. WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TYLER ALREADY AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AND GUST TO WACO NEAR 50 MPH. HOWEVER,
THE ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR TX COUNTIES IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE AND
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY BASED ON THE SPC REMAINING PREVIOUS DAY ONE OUTLOOK
ALONG WITH THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS AVAILABLE. THAT IS GOOD
AS WE DONT NEED HEAVY WEATHER OVERNIGHT, BUT WE'LL TAKE ALL THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.
SO WE SEE HOW MUCH THIS NEW COMPLEX CAN BENEFIT OUR REGION BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY MID MORNING. THE MODELS ALL POINT TO SOME GOOD
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS ONE LAST GASP OF
RAINFALL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS TODAY WILL KEEP UPPER 70S
WHERE MOSTLY SKIES REMAIN WITH LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THE NEW DAY ONE FROM SPC IS A CONTINUED
GENERAL RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ANY GIVEN THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
DANGER OF LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
SO WE MANAGED TO PUT A DENT IN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. OUR SOUNDINGS TODAY HAVE SHOWN SW FLOW
FROM THE GROUND ON UP WITH A GOOD PWAT OF 1.63 INCHES. THIS SW
FLOW PATTERN GAINED WILL GIVE WAY A BIT WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THEN THE
NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES DURING MIDWEEK. SO THE CHANCE FOR MORE SIMILAR ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH BACK INTO OUR AREA WITH THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
ASSISTANCE. THE GFS IS ONLY RUNNING QPF ALONG OUR I-30 CORRIDOR,
BUT THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC DOWN ACROSS I-20 WITH AT
LEAST SOME QPF. THE NBM IS WEARING BOTH THE AT LEAST A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FROM NACOGDOCHES TO SHREVEPORT AND EL DORADO.
BEYOND THIS MIDWEEK PUSH, WE WILL SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
END THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY TO PUSH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK FOR HIGHS, WHILE OUR LOWS WILL CONTINUE WITH A MUGGY RANGE
OF MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S. MUCH OF THIS WARMTH WILL LINGER FOR
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO ADD TO
THE MIX. THE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM S/SW TO NW DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY ACROSS I-30 AND NEARING SHREVEPORT
AND MUCH OF OUR I-20 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE PARISHES EARLY TO MID
EVENING. SOME OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL BE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WITH THE LAST BIT OF OVERNIGHT RAINS ENDING AROUND
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE WPC DAY 6 QPF IS LOOKING GOOD SPORTING A
NICE ONE INCH PLUS ELONGATED BULLSEYE ALONG I-20 FROM NE TX INTO
AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LA. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW US
TO GET BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS AND 70S FOR HIGHS FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A 1028MB AIR MASS OVER THE PLAINS BY 12Z ON
SUNDAY, AND THIS WELL MODELED ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. /24/
AVIATION
FOR THE 13/06Z TAF PERIOD...
ONE AREA OF -RA CONTINUES TO SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL LA TO START THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD, AND WILL AFFECT MLU THROUGH 08Z BEFORE EXITING THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST HERE THROUGH A BETTER PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT VARIOUS MVFR CIGS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS THE REGION, AND SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN
AND LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. AREAS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HAVE
INCREASED THOUGH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND UPPER
SE TX, AND WILL SHIFT E INTO LOWER E TX, POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LFK,
GGG, AND SHV TERMINALS BETWEEN 08-12Z. HAVE TEMPOED THUNDER MENTION
FOR LFK ONLY FOR NOW, WITH VCSH FOR GGG/SHV, BUT WILL ADD THUNDER TO
THESE LATTER TWO TERMINALS SHOULD THE CONVECTION BUILD MORE NE WITH
TIME. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THOUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE SABINE VALLEY, AT WHICH POINT ANY IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING, AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR ACROSS E TX
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN
ELSEWHERE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE, WITH
VCSH/VCTS ADDED TO THE AREA TERMINALS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING, BEFORE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOP AND QUICKLY SPREAD N ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. S WINDS 7-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO
30+KTS OVERNIGHT IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 66 85 65 / 50 10 0 0
MLU 86 64 88 62 / 30 10 0 0
DEQ 79 61 81 62 / 50 10 10 10
TXK 79 67 85 66 / 60 10 0 0
ELD 82 63 86 62 / 50 10 0 0
TYR 82 67 83 67 / 30 10 10 0
GGG 82 66 84 65 / 50 10 0 0
LFK 83 66 85 65 / 40 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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