740
FXUS64 KSHV 131152 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXITING OUR PARISHES OVER LA EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT ALSO MOVING BACK INTO NE AND DEEP EAST TX.
- THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
DURING MIDWEEK AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
MANY AREAS IN OUR FOUR-STATE AREA SAW SOME DECENT RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY WITH MORE ARRIVING THIS EARLY MORNING NOW MOVING THROUGH
WACO AND PALESTINE AND EDGING INTO CHEROKEE AND ANGELINA COUNTIES
NOW. WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TYLER ALREADY AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AND GUST TO WACO NEAR 50 MPH. HOWEVER,
THE ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR TX COUNTIES IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE AND
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY BASED ON THE SPC REMAINING PREVIOUS DAY ONE OUTLOOK
ALONG WITH THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS AVAILABLE. THAT IS GOOD
AS WE DONT NEED HEAVY WEATHER OVERNIGHT, BUT WE'LL TAKE ALL THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.
SO WE SEE HOW MUCH THIS NEW COMPLEX CAN BENEFIT OUR REGION BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY MID MORNING. THE MODELS ALL POINT TO SOME GOOD
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS ONE LAST GASP OF
RAINFALL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS TODAY WILL KEEP UPPER 70S
WHERE MOSTLY SKIES REMAIN WITH LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THE NEW DAY ONE FROM SPC IS A CONTINUED
GENERAL RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ANY GIVEN THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
DANGER OF LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
SO WE MANAGED TO PUT A DENT IN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. OUR SOUNDINGS TODAY HAVE SHOWN SW FLOW
FROM THE GROUND ON UP WITH A GOOD PWAT OF 1.63 INCHES. THIS SW
FLOW PATTERN GAINED WILL GIVE WAY A BIT WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THEN THE
NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES DURING MIDWEEK. SO THE CHANCE FOR MORE SIMILAR ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH BACK INTO OUR AREA WITH THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
ASSISTANCE. THE GFS IS ONLY RUNNING QPF ALONG OUR I-30 CORRIDOR,
BUT THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC DOWN ACROSS I-20 WITH AT
LEAST SOME QPF. THE NBM IS WEARING BOTH THE AT LEAST A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FROM NACOGDOCHES TO SHREVEPORT AND EL DORADO.
BEYOND THIS MIDWEEK PUSH, WE WILL SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
END THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY TO PUSH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK FOR HIGHS, WHILE OUR LOWS WILL CONTINUE WITH A MUGGY RANGE
OF MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S. MUCH OF THIS WARMTH WILL LINGER FOR
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO ADD TO
THE MIX. THE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM S/SW TO NW DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY ACROSS I-30 AND NEARING SHREVEPORT
AND MUCH OF OUR I-20 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE PARISHES EARLY TO MID
EVENING. SOME OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL BE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WITH THE LAST BIT OF OVERNIGHT RAINS ENDING AROUND
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE WPC DAY 6 QPF IS LOOKING GOOD SPORTING A
NICE ONE INCH PLUS ELONGATED BULLSEYE ALONG I-20 FROM NE TX INTO
AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LA. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW US
TO GET BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS AND 70S FOR HIGHS FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A 1028MB AIR MASS OVER THE PLAINS BY 12Z ON
SUNDAY, AND THIS WELL MODELED ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A BAND OF DECAYING CONVECTION OVER E TX S OF I-20 WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LA TO START THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, BUT
MAY AFFECT THE LFK/SHV TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
AWAY FROM THIS CONVECTION, WHICH WILL DISRUPT LOW MVFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION, LOW MVFR
CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION, AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REDEVELOP OVER AREAS CURRENTLY SEEING THE CONVECTION, AND LINGER
THROUGH A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING/RETURNING TO
VFR. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THOUGH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS E
TX/SW AR BEFORE BECOMING VFR, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
AGAIN REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY, AND
PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH VCTS FOR
THE SW AR AND SHV TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES, VFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH A PORTION OF THE EVENING
OVER NE TX/SW AR, BEFORE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
CIGS DEVELOP BY/AFTER 06Z TUESDAY OVER SE AND ECNTRL TX AND
QUICKLY SPREAD N ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THESE CIGS SHOULD NOT REACH MLU/ELD UNTIL AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, AND NOT BEGIN TO LIFT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. S WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL DIMINISH TO
5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 66 85 65 / 50 10 0 0
MLU 86 64 88 62 / 30 10 0 0
DEQ 79 61 81 62 / 50 10 10 10
TXK 79 67 85 66 / 60 10 0 0
ELD 82 63 86 62 / 50 10 0 0
TYR 82 67 83 67 / 30 10 10 0
GGG 82 66 84 65 / 50 10 0 0
LFK 83 66 85 65 / 40 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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