917
FXUS64 KSHV 131710
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1210 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX.
- THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
DURING MIDWEEK AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND A LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUED PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREAWIDE. A DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRANSLATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA WILL SERVE AS THE CATALYST FOR
CONVECTION LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX. PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING CLOUD-COVER TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S.
OVERALL PATTERN TO REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO IGNITE CONVECTION, MOST OF THE REGION
TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
AN UPPER-LOW WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE MID-
LEVEL JET ABOVE AN ALREADY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. SOME
STORMS COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. /05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A BAND OF DECAYING CONVECTION OVER E TX S OF I-20 WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LA TO START THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, BUT
MAY AFFECT THE LFK/SHV TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
AWAY FROM THIS CONVECTION, WHICH WILL DISRUPT LOW MVFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION, LOW MVFR
CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION, AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REDEVELOP OVER AREAS CURRENTLY SEEING THE CONVECTION, AND LINGER
THROUGH A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING/RETURNING TO
VFR. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THOUGH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS E
TX/SW AR BEFORE BECOMING VFR, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
AGAIN REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY, AND
PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH VCTS FOR
THE SW AR AND SHV TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES, VFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH A PORTION OF THE EVENING
OVER NE TX/SW AR, BEFORE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
CIGS DEVELOP BY/AFTER 06Z TUESDAY OVER SE AND ECNTRL TX AND
QUICKLY SPREAD N ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THESE CIGS SHOULD NOT REACH MLU/ELD UNTIL AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, AND NOT BEGIN TO LIFT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. S WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL DIMINISH TO
5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 65 88 63 88 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 62 82 62 80 / 10 10 20 40
TXK 67 86 66 85 / 10 0 0 20
ELD 63 86 61 85 / 10 0 0 10
TYR 68 84 67 84 / 0 10 0 20
GGG 66 84 66 84 / 10 0 0 10
LFK 66 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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