754
FXUS64 KSHV 271951 CCA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
251 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW FROM TYLER TO NEAR
MONROE IN THE SPC DAY ONE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- AN ENHANCED RISK FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS IN OUR FOUR-STATE AREA
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
- THE CUT-OFF LOW OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA NOW WILL BE RACING
EASTWARD, LIFTING SOME OF THE BEST RAIN TOTALS OVER OUR FRESHLY
ARRIVED AIR MASS, THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT MUCH SUN YET, BUT MORE PERHAPS IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OF PEAK HEATING. CURRENTLY, LOW TO MID 80S ABOUND IN
THE GUSTY SW WIND. OUR DEW POINTS ARE LOADED FOR BEAR IN THE LOWER
TO A FEW MID 70S, WHILE OUR SOUNDING REMAINS VERY CAPPED WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE PHASING OVER THE PLAINS
UNDER THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARROW HEAD OF MN. IT'S SUBTLE, BUT
THE SW FLOW IS DEEP AND THIS PHASING WILL BOOST FORCING ALOFT WITH
A SPEED MAX POURING INTO THE TRAVELING SHORT WAVE BASE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE SPC HAS UPDATED THEIR DAY ONE WITH A
DEEPER DIP OF THE SLIGHT RISK CONTOUR OVER MORE OF OUR AREA, NOW
WELL SOUTH OF I-20 FROM TYLER TO GARY CITY AND LONGSTREET, TO HALL
SUMMIT AND RUSTON. MONROE REMAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK.
ONCE THE CAP BREAKS, THERE IS LOADS OF DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE THE
INVERSION AT 5.6KFT. SO WHILE THE RAIN IS WELCOMED, THE THREAT FOR
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND ARE QUITE VALID
CONSIDERING THE TIMING USING ALL THE HEATING WE CAN MUSTER AND
POTENTIALLY BE SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASED WARMTH AND
MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF AMERICA AS THE DRY LINE RESETS BACK WEST.
SO LOTS TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS EVENING AS "TAIL END CHARLIE"
ENERGY SWINGS ENE DOWN MUCH OF OUR I-20. AND THEN PERHAPS EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED FRONTAL FORCING AREAWIDE, THUS
MAKING FOR ANOTHER BIG NOCTURNAL PUSH SCENARIO. THE WPC ALSO HAS
TUESDAY BEING POTENTIALLY MUCH WETTER, UPPING THEIR MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS TONIGHT, TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR ALL OF OUR
I-20 CORRIDOR ON THE DAY 2 ERO.
OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO N EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR BRINGING AN END TO ANY
FURTHER THREATS FOR A RESPITE. MID TO LATE WEEK WILL SEE OUR MUGGY
80S BECOME COMFY 70S, AND THEN THE CLOUDS AND MORE SO THE COLD
FRONT, THAT WILL DROP DOWN A NICE CHILL BEHIND THE CUT-OFF
SWINGING THROUGH THE PATTERN ON FRIDAY WITH 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND. THE WEEK ENDING RAINFALL WILL SEE MORE ELEVATION IN THE
STORM BASE AND LESS ROOTED IN THE MUGGY NEAR SURFACE AIR, WHICH
WILL ALL ARISE WITH THIS FINAL RUN OF STORMS. BOTH WITH WITH LESS
SEVERITY AND MORE BENEFICIAL WIDESPREAD (WINTER-LIKE OVERRUNNING)
RAINFALL FOR THE NEW MONTH TO TOTALS. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
FOR THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD...
HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
AR/N LA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX, BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID-
AFTERNOON, AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/WRN LA/SW AR AND
QUICKLY SPREAD NNE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK (WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER E ACROSS ECNTRL LA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON), WHICH MAY SPREAD E GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW, HAVE
ADDED VCTS MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE TYR/LFK TERMINALS, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH LATE. DEPENDING ON
TIMING AND LONGEVITY OF THE CONVECTION, THIS COULD DELAY THE ONSET
OR DEVELOPMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BECOME IMPACTED BY 12Z TUESDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD
E THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 88 69 79 / 40 60 60 50
MLU 71 89 68 82 / 40 60 70 60
DEQ 65 80 58 74 / 40 70 70 30
TXK 70 85 65 76 / 60 80 90 40
ELD 66 85 63 76 / 50 60 80 50
TYR 73 89 68 78 / 20 50 60 40
GGG 72 89 68 78 / 30 50 60 50
LFK 72 92 70 84 / 20 20 20 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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